SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Vulnerable Oil Pipelines and the UAE’s Existential Delusion

https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2042945987497410616

Patricia Marins

Vulnerable Oil Pipelines and the UAE’s Existential Delusion If the problem is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a conflict, I would say that these ideas only last until the conflict actually begins. Once it starts, both the terminals and the oil pipelines will be bombed. The Gulf countries have not yet understood that they need to reach some kind of arrangement among themselves. And the United States should encourage this, focusing on regional stability. It has become clear that U.S military control of the region no longer exists. The bases only serve to waste money and expose the Arab countries to confrontation with Iran. The Emirates are living in an existential delusion, believing they can return to previous levels of prosperity while maintaining a confrontational stance toward Iran. The UAE is face-to-face with Iran. After what happened in this war, who will invest in Dubai without the certainty that the country has reached an understanding with Iran? The illusion of American protection no longer exists. The same applies to all Gulf countries. Both the appeasement of Iranian-backed militias and the reduction of the American military presence around Iran are political decisions that need to mature through greater dialogue, something that will not be achieved with the confrontational tone the Emirates have maintained. On the contrary, the Emirates are deluded and will see their economy face serious difficulties if they continue down this path. Carrying out persuasion through military encirclement with bases against a missile power is no longer viable today. Decades ago, those bases might have received the occasional imprecise Scud. Today, they face showers of missiles and drones. These bases are no longer practical in the current era, and the same applies to bases in Asia surrounding China, or NATO bases surrounding Russia. The new reality is simple: only underground bases supported by a vast ecosystem will survive future conflicts. The Cold War strategy of containment has proven to be a failure in modern wars. It merely exposes troops to grave danger without delivering real security. The entire model must be completely rethought. The war with Iran has demonstrated that military bases now require a minimum safe distance from adversary missile and drone threats, and even then, they must be built underground. Surface bases have become liabilities rather than assets.

10:40 PM · Apr 11, 2026