SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: U.S. SANCTIONS BACKFIRE: PETROYUAN GROWS STRONGER IN EVERY CRISIS

https://x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/2047348919534027089

NewRulesGeopolitics

 U.S. SANCTIONS BACKFIRE: PETROYUAN GROWS STRONGER IN EVERY CRISIS

Every time the US creates a crisis, more countries start using China’s yuan to buy and sell oil instead of the dollar. And each crisis leaves behind more yuan users who never fully go back.

 Dollar still dominates ~50% of global payments on SWIFT and yuan is stuck in low single digits — but yuan jumps in when sanctions block normal dollar deals.

 Indian refiners already settling Iranian oil cargoes directly in yuan under heavy US sanctions pressure.

 African banks rapidly building direct yuan channels to bypass dollar routing entirely.

 Strait of Hormuz carries 1 in 5 barrels of global oil; Asia gets half or more of its crude from the Middle East — disruptions there force quick alternative payments.

 Each crisis creates lasting “residue”: more firms get used to transacting in yuan, more banks learn to handle it, and companies start holding working balances in yuan.

 In normal oil shocks dollar demand surges and strengthens it fast; with yuan channels open, demand becomes uneven and dollar rallies turn messy and less predictable.

The dollar won’t suddenly collapse. But it’s losing its total control during emergencies. Usage spikes during chaos, then fades when calm returns — but new infrastructure and habits stay, raising the baseline for the next crisis.

Will the petroyuan eventually replace the petrodollar?