SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: One plays theater. The other plays chess.

Translated from French

While Trump announces his blockade, China quietly turns off the tap on sulfuric acid. No one is talking about it, but it’s one of the most consequential decisions of this crisis. Let’s start with the basics, because this topic is little-known but of critical importance. Sulfuric acid is one of the most widely used industrial chemicals in the world. Without it: - No phosphate fertilizers, so less food. - No copper extraction, so fewer electrical cables, infrastructure, and energy transitions. - No batteries, so fewer electric vehicles. - No petroleum refining. - No textiles. It’s an invisible molecule at the heart of almost everything industrial civilization produces. On April 10, 2026, China announced it would suspend its sulfuric acid exports starting in May, striking metal and fertilizer industries already battered by disruptions from the war in Iran. This timing is no coincidence. It coincides with the announcement of the U.S. blockade of Hormuz. To grasp the scale of the shock, you need to measure what’s happening simultaneously on three fronts. - First front: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocks sulfur exports from the Middle East, a region that produces a third of the world’s sulfur, the raw material for sulfuric acid. - Second front: China shuts down its exports of finished sulfuric acid, depriving the global market of its two main sources of supply at the same time. Result: sulfur prices have already surged 70% since the start of the conflict. Sulfuric acid prices in Chile have risen 44% in a single month. - Third front, the cascading consequences: Chile, the world’s top copper producer, imports over a million tons of Chinese sulfuric acid per year. About 20% of its copper production relies on processes requiring this acid. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Indonesia for nickel are also directly hit. Less copper means fewer global electrical infrastructures. Less fertilizer means additional pressure on global food security in a context where agricultural markets are already strained. A CRU analyst sums it up: “The loss of Chinese volumes will be hard to compensate for, given the parallel shortage of sulfur raw materials.” Here, finally, is what this sequence reveals about Chinese strategy. Beijing doesn’t need to declare war. It just needs to turn off a tap. This is exactly the doctrine of asymmetric economic warfare that China has been methodically practicing for fifteen years: using its dominant position in global supply chains as leverage for pressure without direct military confrontation. Every time, the method is the same: identify the invisible point of dependency, wait for the moment of maximum tension, then turn off the tap. Just like that. Trump, meanwhile, announces a flashy maritime blockade in all caps on Truth Social. China responds with a discreet bureaucratic decision relayed internally to its producers. One plays theater. The other plays chess. In *The Puppet of the White House*, I analyze how this administration responds to crises with 20th-century tools against adversaries who have built 21st-century weapons. A naval blockade is a 1962 weapon. Mastery of global supply chains is a 2026 weapon. And while Trump tweets “BLOWN TO HELL” (Blown to Hell), Beijing quietly cuts off the molecule on which global food production depends. The war no one talks about is often the most effective.