Iran chose war over returning to prison.
Translated from Japanese
Iran chose war over returning to prison.
A cage of sanctions that lasted 47 years. U.S. military bases densely surrounding it. The ever-present threat of bombardment. And the IAEA's monitoring, little more than patrols in disguise. That "deal" called the JCPOA (nuclear agreement) was, for Iran, nothing more than a temporary release from prison. Who would willingly go back into that cage?
In this war, Iran is wagering more than just territory or regime survival. It's aiming to dismantle the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, the petrodollar system, and the financialized global structure that funnels vast wealth from Gulf states to Wall Street—tearing down the whole thing.
Ironically, since the war began, Iran's revenues have hit record highs. It has effectively taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, collecting tolls from ships passing through. One day, just four tankers transited the strait and generated $815 million in income. What's more, its pre-war stockpiled floating crude reserves still hold 130 million barrels. Time is entirely on Iran's side.
Meanwhile, Western economies are taking a direct hit to their "epicenter." Helium, gallium, phosphoric acid—nearly all the materials essential to modern industry pass through the Strait of Hormuz. There's less than two weeks left before supplies run dry. Prices have more than doubled from spot rates. Sri Lanka is already buying at over $200 per barrel. Yet the news reports "oil prices fall from $98 to $93." The disconnect between the real economy and the paper markets has reached the point of utter madness.
There are two major obstacles to peace.
The first is Trump himself. He denounced Obama's JCPOA as "the worst deal ever" and proclaimed, "I could make a better deal." But the more Iran concedes, the closer the outcome edges to the JCPOA—meaning "the same as Obama." What he really wants is for Iran to hand over 430 kilos of enriched uranium as a "trophy." As if that's ever going to happen.
Worse, according to insiders, his mental state has veered into realms of "delusion" and "rage." At last week's meeting, he proposed even larger-scale airstrikes (tantamount to war crimes), only for everyone—including his aides—to reject it outright. How long can this bizarre situation drag on?
The second is Israel. This is the trickiest part, and the one that Western rationalists utterly fail to grasp.
The majority in modern Israel is no longer "secular-rational." It has morphed into an "apocalyptic-redemptive" Zionism rooted in Jewish mysticism. They prioritize "forcing redemption through a great war" over "pragmatic interests." The defense minister calls Iran an "abominable country," spewing purely apocalyptic rhetoric. Netanyahu, desperate to cover up his own failures, is dragging America into war.
America's national interest is ending the war. Israel's messianism is plunging into the apocalypse. No one can bridge that gap.
So my conclusion is simple—this war has no "exit."
What Iran wants isn't a "better nuclear deal." It's to negotiate a new international economic order from a position of liberation. To embed the common-sense notion of "tolls" in the Strait of Hormuz and put an end to the financialized house of cards. It can't go back to the sanctions era that began 47 years ago.
The U.S. is hopelessly stuck. Iran has time on its side and is raking in revenue while fighting. Israel craves the end times. Trump is losing his battle with himself.
If this structure crumbles, it will be when Western gas pumps run completely dry and citizens take to the streets. That's when everyone will get it—this isn't the Iran war. It was a full-scale war over world order all along.
—
Alastair Crooke (former British diplomat, founder of Conflicts Forum)
"Iran War Is Now a Global War for World Order"
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posted by Satish Sharma at
05:34
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