SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Trump's massive strategic error will damage U.S. power and prestige far more than Suez hurt Britain and France.

This great piece by

, in which I'm quoted, gets the 1956 Suez War history right and explains its echoes for the Iran War. Increasingly I fear that Trump's massive strategic error will damage U.S. power and prestige far more than Suez hurt Britain and France. The UK/France gambit to take the canal backfired spectacularly. The *war itself* prompted Nasser to block the canal -- the outcome the UK/Fra was trying to prevent. It heralded the final decline of Britain from great power to "has been" status. The analogies to Trump's Iran debacle are legion. But an especially overlooked similarity is how the Suez War dramatically strengthened Nasser's power and influence throughout the region -- much like Trump how Trump's war has perversely *strengthened* the Islamic Republic of Iran. The war has provoked an entirely predictable (in fact, predicted) nationalistic response among many Iranians -- including those who hate the regime but now hate the U.S. and Israel more for bombing universities, threatening the electric grid, and blanketing Tehran with toxic rain following the explosion at a nearby refinery. Not only has the regime consolidated power, but it is now filled with hardliners after Israeli assassinations have killed off relative pragmatists like Ali Larijani. Courtesy of Trump, Iran has also discovered it can paralyze oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and collect "tolls" in exchange for freedom of passage. Iran is now trying to institutionalize its newfound leverage, which could be a lasting unintended consequence of this foolish war. I've argued before that Trump's Iran war is already the U.S.'s "Suez Moment" in terms of signifying U.S. strategic decline -- especially a decline in our ability to make sound national security decisions. But the Iran War could turn out considerably worse than Suez because the US has no one to check us from our own strategic excesses. This war will unfold as badly as Trump decides to make it, and the indications are that he intends to escalate, making it worse. Russia and China are sipping champagne while they watch the U.S. self-destruct from the sidelines. In 1956, both the U.S. and the USSR leaned heavily on Britain and France to withdraw. The Soviets even made blatant nuclear threats to compel UK/Fra to quit Suez. In 2026, there is no higher power. Only the U.S. itself can course-correct before making a bad situation even worse with further escalation. But Trump's impenetrable hubris and poor decision-making don't inspire confidence that the U.S. will retrench.

@defpriorities

@NewYorker

From newyorker.com

2:30 AM · Mar 31, 2026