The US has been stunned by how well Iran has fought in this war so far. That comes from a series of misconceptions and mistakes made by Trump and US intelligence:
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2032875183820911032
The US has been stunned by how well Iran has fought in this war so far. That comes from a series of misconceptions and mistakes made by Trump and US intelligence:
1) The US had watched Russia use Shahed drones extensively in Ukraine but seemingly drew the wrong conclusion but did not adapt to how effective it can be.
2) US air defense systems were built with different threats in mind, primarily fast-moving ballistic missiles. Iran's slow, low-flying propeller drones with small radar signatures created a categorically different problem that existing defenses struggled with. They can also skim the surface of the Gulf, further reducing radar visibility.
3) The US did not expect the sheer volume, over 3,000 missiles and drones, which created an attrition problem.
3) The US appears to have underestimated how thoroughly Iran had mapped US operations in the region, not just base locations but detailed patterns of daily military life. Iran also had access to commercial satellite imagery plus whatever Russia and China were sharing. Qatar's arrest of 10 people linked to Iranian Revolutionary Guard cells also suggests Iran had deep human intelligence networks.
4) Iran was expected to hit mostly military targets. But it hit embassies, airports, hotels, desalination plants, data centers, ports, oil refineries and residential buildings across multiple Gulf countries simultaneously. This breadth was not expected.
5) Intelligence failed to grasp that Iran's military is designed for survival and persistence rather than winning a conventional face-off. Even after strikes that killed senior leaders Iran has maintained a high volume of fire.
6) The intensity of the drone swarms has led to critical errors; recently, three F-15 jets were reportedly downed by friendly fire during the chaos of an engagement.
7) Most importantly, despite years of internal unrest, the external threat has fused the regime and the nation. Even Iranians who previously protested against the government have shown a nationalistic response against what is perceived as foreign aggression, especially following reports of civilian casualties like the Minab school strike.
All this has led to what is shaping up to be one of the most disastrous US military campaigns in history.
posted by Satish Sharma at
05:55
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