The entire idea that Iran will be put in a box by the Western powers like Saddam was after Kuwait is wholly misguided. There is no possibility of that.
https://x.com/policytensor/status/2033402902144802948
One thesis I am certain about is that there is no path back to the status quo ante in the gulf now.
The entire idea that Iran will be put in a box by the Western powers like Saddam was after Kuwait is wholly misguided. There is no possibility of that.
Revolutionary Iran will either defeat the United States and survive as an independent power with a de facto veto over gulf energy, or it will cease to exist. In either case, there is no way back.
If Paul W. Schroeder were alive today, he would ask us to pay attention to the inability or unwillingness of the international system to accommodate and socialize revolutionary Iran.
What went wrong? Why has it proven so utterly impossible for the international system to deal with revolutionary vanguard regimes? even after they lose their revolutionary elan? and despite their willingness to appease?
Schroeder would ask us to think about the functional specialization of the states in the international system.
The US position in the gulf region is a real, load-bearing feature of the world. What happens to the functional specialization of the states when this specific aspect of the international system breaks down?
The oil monarchies of the gulf are the paradigmatic, motivating case of functional specialization in the international system. Their entire political economies and indeed their biological populations are a function of their deal with the devil. This was “working,” at least from the pov of the imperial managers, until the Israeli resort to unrestrained mass violence.
Today, Sunni Muslim citizens of the monarchies are cheering on Shia Iran against the protector of their monarchs.
Will these monarchs survive? Will these state formations? What is the UAE except the shadow of American power in the Middle East?
I feel like we’re in the early days of large-scale transformations of the kind only produced by hegemonic wars. policytensor.substack.com/p/theory-of-he
posted by Satish Sharma at
13:49
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