Israel’s Channel 12 has now leaked what it claims is a U.S. “15-point document” to end the war with Iran.
Assuming this "15-point deal" on Iran that's been supposedly leaked by Israel's Channel 12 (N12) is real, those are the points:
1. Iran must dismantle all weapons-relevant nuclear infrastructure and capabilities it has built up to date.
2. Iran must formally commit to never developing nuclear weapons.
3. All uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is permanently prohibited.
4. Iran's entire existing stockpile of enriched uranium must be transferred to the IAEA within a mutually agreed timeline.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear facilities must be permanently decommissioned and physically destroyed.
6. The IAEA must be granted full and unrestricted access to all nuclear-related sites and information in Iran.
7. Iran must formally abandon its "proxy paradigm" - its strategic doctrine of projecting power through armed regional militias and allied groups.
8. Iran must immediately and verifiably cease all financing and arming of its regional proxies and affiliates.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain permanently open as a free international maritime zone, with Iran renouncing any right to block it.
10. Iran's ballistic missile program will be subject to binding limits on both the number of missiles and their range, with the specific parameters to be negotiated. 11. Iran's remaining missile capabilities may only be used for defensive purposes.
12. All sanctions currently imposed on Iran will be fully lifted.
13. The US will actively support the development of Iran's civilian nuclear power program, specifically the Bushehr electricity generation plant (Iran's only completed nuclear power plant, built and operated by Russia's Rosatom).
14. The snapback mechanism - under which the US could unilaterally trigger reimposition of UN sanctions - will be permanently removed.
15. (not explicitly enumerated in the N12 source, but implied) A comprehensive verification and compliance framework will be established to monitor implementation of the above commitments by both parties.
In essence, to summarize, every single instrument that has allowed Iran to resist and fight back during this war is what Iran is asked to surrender, in exchange for sanctions relief and, presumably, a transfer of their only nuclear power plant from the Russians to the Americans.
Which frankly sounds like a pretty horrendous deal proposal from Iran's perspective.
It's an open invitation to be attacked again, but defenseless this time around with 1) no ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, 2) no ability to open multiple fronts simultaneously through regional allies (like they did this time around with Iraqi militias for instance), 3) no nuclear program so no source of strategic leverage in any negotiation, and 4) no ballistic missile arsenal.
And the U.S. is apparently asking that this be negotiated during a one-month ceasefire that would in itself eliminate Iran's active leverage in the negotiations (mainly the closure of Hormuz).
In short all the hallmarks of a Trump deal proposal: "all for me, nothing for you" and the strategic sophistication of a schoolyard bully.
I mean, the sheer crudeness of asking a country you are currently bombing to voluntarily disarm itself completely in exchange for the "concession" of running their strategic energy infrastructure and lifting sanctions that exist solely because you chose to unilaterally blow up the previous deal...
If this is indeed what's on the table, and if Iran has any sense of self-preservation (and it looks like they very much do), this deal is dead on arrival.
posted by Satish Sharma at
08:08
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