- The Iranian regime has not collapsed, and the new leader seems even more radical. Apparently the less radical alternatives the U.S. was eyeing to take power where ‘accidentally’ killed (likely by Israel)
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2030440183481634870
Ok things changed in the last few hours, and it’s not looking good for Trump
Here's why:
- Iran struck the Gulf countries hard tonight. I was not expecting that
- The NYT just reported U.S. officials gave a closed door briefing to Congress estimating Iran still retains half its ballistic missile program and even more of its drone capabilities
- The Strait of Hormuz is still shut, and if Iran can sustain this for another 3 weeks, the global markets won’t survive (and based on the NYT report, they should easily be able to)
- The Iranian regime has not collapsed, and the new leader seems even more radical. Apparently the less radical alternatives the U.S. was eyeing to take power where ‘accidentally’ killed (likely by Israel)
- The U.S. burned through 800+ Patriot interceptors in five days at $4 million each, and even before this war started, the Pentagon only had a quarter of the interceptor stockpile it needs to defend all its global commitments
The good news?
The war may end sooner than what officials are saying. Trump will need an off-ramp soon as energy prices spike, munitions deplete, and the Gulf burns.
As I’ve said below, all Iran needs to ‘win’ is to survive long enough for the costs to become unbearable.
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2030440183481634870
posted by Satish Sharma at
10:15
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