He can walk. He cannot. He must reach a negotiated ceasefire deal with Iran to terminate this war. But what kind of deal can he secure?
https://x.com/policytensor/status/2030752337581486311
If the Iranians are still firing on gulf targets, and Hormuz is still closed, the US walking away would be an unambiguous strategic defeat for the US with massive geopolitical ramifications.
In the gulf monarchies, we see this very specific kind of functional specialization. The fundamental premise of this entire world of oil sheikhs, Western expats, and Asian labor, is the US defense guarantee.
Specifically, the quietism of the monarchs, they ability to keep a lid on the Arab street, their whole formula for security and prosperity was based on a single premise: that no one could militarily defy the United States; that if Iran attacked them, the US will able to protect them; that if Iran closed Hormuz to traffic, the US will be able to reopen it with the direct application of US military might.
This is the fundamental equation underpinning the world of the oil monarchies. If the US walks away, this equation is irrevocably destroyed. The oil monarchies will have to reach an modus vivendi with Iran, and the first thing Iran will impose is that the oil monarchies will not allow the US bases to be rebuilt. This then results in the demolition of the US position in the gulf region.
So, it is really hard to see how He can walk. He cannot. He must reach a negotiated ceasefire deal with Iran to terminate this war. But what kind of deal can he secure?
Iran’s principal war aim is to restore deterrence. If the US could somehow credibly commit to not attacking Iran, and not supporting Israeli attacks on Iran, then the Iranians would be interested in calling it off. But the US cannot credibly commit to this because of the capture of US policy by Israel.
This means that the Iranians are quite unlikely to accept US reassurances. They will only call it off once they judge that sufficient pain has been delivered to restore deterrence — that the attack on Iran has proven so costly that the US would think twice before launching another attack or supporting another one by Israel. This is a difficult thing to judge. But that is the call that the Iranians will have to make.
posted by Satish Sharma at
05:28
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