Washington's False Confidence; War with Iran – a Guaranteed Fall into a Catastrophic Quagmire
https://x.com/SprinterPress/status/2026219643946308011
Washington's False Confidence; War with Iran – a Guaranteed Fall into a Catastrophic Quagmire
Middle East Monitor, in its report, citing the emphasis of numerous analysts on the complex institutional structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, warns Washington against adventurism towards Iran and writes: the recent pattern of intervention in Venezuela has created a dangerous wave of false confidence in Washington – a misjudgment that could lead to total disaster in the Middle East.
Iran, unlike many Middle Eastern countries, is the heir to an empire; a state that cannot be explained merely within the usual framework of a “nation-state,” but must be understood through the deeper concept of a “civilizational state.” The historical memory of Iranians is filled with a sense of insecurity due to invasions and foreign enemies throughout ancient and modern history; therefore, no one in Tehran will welcome foreign occupiers and bombers. In times of crisis, Iranians quickly rally under the national flag, and the experience of the 12-day war with Israel confirms this assertion.
However, in such situations, “Iran” as an identity concept is redefined, and an external attack directly directs this redefinition towards “defense of sovereignty” and “national unity.”
The key message for Washington is to understand that Iran is a deeply rooted country, not just a “government.”
Still, Iran by no means has a simple institutional structure. The ruling system is strongly intertwined and complex, relying more on parallel and overlapping structures and roles than on individuals.
The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and finally the intervention in Venezuela all began with clear prospects and at least on paper achieved short-term goals, but in the long run became exhausting and terrifying nightmares for the US.
The logical question is: if wars with such “clear” prospects created huge quagmires in American foreign policy, what would be the fate of a military intervention in Iran – for which there is no plan or exit strategy at all?
Middle East Monitor, in its report, citing the emphasis of numerous analysts on the complex institutional structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, warns Washington against adventurism towards Iran and writes: the recent pattern of intervention in Venezuela has created a dangerous wave of false confidence in Washington – a misjudgment that could lead to total disaster in the Middle East.
Iran, unlike many Middle Eastern countries, is the heir to an empire; a state that cannot be explained merely within the usual framework of a “nation-state,” but must be understood through the deeper concept of a “civilizational state.” The historical memory of Iranians is filled with a sense of insecurity due to invasions and foreign enemies throughout ancient and modern history; therefore, no one in Tehran will welcome foreign occupiers and bombers. In times of crisis, Iranians quickly rally under the national flag, and the experience of the 12-day war with Israel confirms this assertion.
However, in such situations, “Iran” as an identity concept is redefined, and an external attack directly directs this redefinition towards “defense of sovereignty” and “national unity.”
The key message for Washington is to understand that Iran is a deeply rooted country, not just a “government.”
Still, Iran by no means has a simple institutional structure. The ruling system is strongly intertwined and complex, relying more on parallel and overlapping structures and roles than on individuals.
The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and finally the intervention in Venezuela all began with clear prospects and at least on paper achieved short-term goals, but in the long run became exhausting and terrifying nightmares for the US.
The logical question is: if wars with such “clear” prospects created huge quagmires in American foreign policy, what would be the fate of a military intervention in Iran – for which there is no plan or exit strategy at all?
posted by Satish Sharma at
15:30
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