The Trump administration has openly signalled a preference for what I call a “soft regime change” over a costly hard regime change that risks a full-scale regional war.

https://x.com/ali7adeh/status/2020955631876784613

Ali Alizadeh

@ali7adeh

The Trump administration has openly signalled a preference for what I call a “soft regime change” over a costly hard regime change that risks a full-scale regional war. That means facilitating an elite political transition away from Ayatollah Khamenei and those committed to strategic independence, toward figures such as Hassan Rouhani who are prepared to accommodate U.S. demands, including disarmament. From this perspective, Ayatollah Khamenei’s description of the January unrest and its foreign backing as a coup attempt is not rhetorical excess but a diagnosis of intent. The recent, limited wave of arrests should therefore be understood as a pre-emptive effort to deter such an elite transition—especially one that could converge with renewed U.S./Israeli military pressur -not a “purge.”

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Vali Nasr

@vali_nasr

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Feb 9

The arrest of leaders of reformist front extends crackdown to the faction of reformists led by Khatami that supported Pezeshkian’s candidacy and participating in the last run presidential elections. This signals a significant purge of political class of all but absolute

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7:19 AM · Feb 10, 2026

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https://x.com/ali7adeh/status/2020955631876784613