The likelihood of an attack in Iran just went up significantly as this round of talks in Geneva failed
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2027101091842924773
The likelihood of an attack in Iran just went up significantly as this round of talks in Geneva failed. The Iranian delegation left after a few hours of indirect negotiations, deadlocked over the same core issues as every previous round.
1) Trump demands a permanent, total end to Iranian enrichment. Tehran views this as a demand for permanent surrender of sovereign rights and refuses.
2) With Trump's early March deadline days away and two carrier strike groups in the region, the risk of a U.S. military strike is the highest it's been in years.
3) Israel is already moving, striking Hezbollah positions in Lebanon today, with strike plans against Iran itself ready to execute within hours of an order.
4) Neither the U.S. military nor Israeli intelligence actually believes a strike will solve the problem. The June 2025 strikes set Iran back by months, not years. A new strike damages but does not destroy, and leads back to negotiations, on worse terms, after an Iranian retaliation the region is not prepared to absorb.
5) What's driving this toward war isn't strategic necessity. It's domestic politics. Trump's deadline, Netanyahu's elections, and hardliners in both capitals who have decided no deal is better than a compromise.
A strike seems almost inevitable. It will solve nothing.
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2027101091842924773
posted by Satish Sharma at
03:25
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