There is very strong opposition in the region to US military attack and regime change in Iran from countries that have no love for the Islamic Republic,
https://x.com/tparsi/status/2011182772920959077
There is very strong opposition in the region to US military attack and regime change in Iran from countries that have no love for the Islamic Republic, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
How do we explain this?
The two main factors are:
1. They fear that the intervention will not lead to a stable democracy in Iran but rather chaos and potentially even civil war. This will produce a massive refugee crisis that will destabilize the entire region, save Israel (even the civil war in Syria did not create refugee flows to Israel - they went to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey - and of course Europe)
2. But there is also a broader geopolitical factor at play here. Ever since the US essentially lifted all restraints on Israel during the Biden admin, regional players have started to see Israel's aggressive and reckless foreign policy as a direct threat to them (Israel has bombed 7 countries in the region since Oct 7, 2023). If the alliance with the US does NOT protect you from what these countries see as Israel's designs for regional hegemony, then you will need a new configuration aimed at balancing against Israel. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have moved in this direction. Though Iran is not part of this configuration, it does serve as a buffer against Israel. Chaos in Iran - or a pro-Israeli puppet being installed in Tehran - is seen as a very dangerous blow to the effort to balance against Israel's increasingly aggressive regional posture.
posted by Satish Sharma at
04:25
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