Protests in Iran seem to have largely ended. Some thoughts.⬇️
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/2010477799291982005
Protests in Iran seem to have largely ended. Some thoughts.
1. There was no apparent inciting incident to the protests and they escalated over a period of a couple days, suggesting a go order was issued to an existing network rather than anything growing organically from popular sentiment.
2. There seem to have been hundreds of anti-government personnel and dozens of members of the security services killed in the fighting. This level of extreme violence, on such short notice and with so little pretext, again suggests a planned insurrection.
3. Property damage was significant and ill-natured, with systematic attacks on mosques, emergency services, and transportation infrastructure as well as the usual government facilities. Much of this had little to do with the regime per se and instead seemed to have been aimed at hurting the general public - again not only suggesting a planned insurrection but one that was aimed to create as much havoc as possible.
4. Rebel forces seized no territory and received little support from the general public and none from the formal government structure - but benefited from coordinated messaging in the West suggesting they'd already overthrown the government or were imminently about to do so. This goes back to my point yesterday - this rebellion had absolutely no chance of success but was instead staged in an attempt to create conditions for foreign intervention. Israeli incitement has been openly admitted at the highest levels of US politics (see Lindsey Graham).
5. The Iranian authorities appear to have been very unimpressed by Trump's threats to intervene if they cracked down, putting their quite capable air defense forces on alert, issuing a number of threats to retaliate, and cracking down hard anyways. Now we're getting stories about Trump considering non-kinetic options, which is shorthand for backing down.
6. The United States does not appear to have moved naval assets towards Iran during any of this or redeployed air defense assets to the Middle East, suggesting that any plan for an attack is quite limited.
1. There was no apparent inciting incident to the protests and they escalated over a period of a couple days, suggesting a go order was issued to an existing network rather than anything growing organically from popular sentiment.
2. There seem to have been hundreds of anti-government personnel and dozens of members of the security services killed in the fighting. This level of extreme violence, on such short notice and with so little pretext, again suggests a planned insurrection.
3. Property damage was significant and ill-natured, with systematic attacks on mosques, emergency services, and transportation infrastructure as well as the usual government facilities. Much of this had little to do with the regime per se and instead seemed to have been aimed at hurting the general public - again not only suggesting a planned insurrection but one that was aimed to create as much havoc as possible.
4. Rebel forces seized no territory and received little support from the general public and none from the formal government structure - but benefited from coordinated messaging in the West suggesting they'd already overthrown the government or were imminently about to do so. This goes back to my point yesterday - this rebellion had absolutely no chance of success but was instead staged in an attempt to create conditions for foreign intervention. Israeli incitement has been openly admitted at the highest levels of US politics (see Lindsey Graham).
5. The Iranian authorities appear to have been very unimpressed by Trump's threats to intervene if they cracked down, putting their quite capable air defense forces on alert, issuing a number of threats to retaliate, and cracking down hard anyways. Now we're getting stories about Trump considering non-kinetic options, which is shorthand for backing down.
6. The United States does not appear to have moved naval assets towards Iran during any of this or redeployed air defense assets to the Middle East, suggesting that any plan for an attack is quite limited.
posted by Satish Sharma at
04:59
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