Pretty sure things would get pretty ugly in USA, more so than during the collapse of USSR bc people have way more guns here
https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2015632583640350811
I would recommend anyone looking for already fully formed analysis of a potential American collapse through the lens of the collapse of the USSR to read Dmitry Orlov. Orlov moved from Russia to the US when he was 12, but traveled extensively within Russia in the 90s. He started writing about his experiences in the mid-2000s.
Orlov believes the Soviet Union was much better positioned to survive collapse than the contemporary US is. American gun ownership is a factor because street gang activity exploded in post-Soviet Russia due to the massive power vacuum left by the implosion of the government. But this is a relatively minor factor because Orlov is a realist and isn't approaching this from a Mad Max angle. Instead, he focuses on the following asymmetries:
• Homelessness was effectively nonexistent in the USSR. Public housing ownership ensured eviction was impossible. Government-owned utilities continued to operate
• Extensive public transportation systems also continued to function. Low private vehicle ownership meant that Russians weren't dependent on being able to purchase fuel during hyperinflation
• Mass public sector employment allowed many Russians to keep their jobs
• Many Russians lived in multi-generational households. This made it much easier for the elderly to survive and contribute to the maintenance of their family group
• Soviet consumer goods were generally built to last and be easily repairable
• Russians were already used to supplementing their diet with home grown food from community gardens, forest foraging, and dacha access. Most Russians cooked nearly every meal at home before the collapse.
• State-run healthcare continued operating
• The USSR was largely self sufficient in energy production, which was state owned, allowing price controls
• Russian society was highly homogenous, reducing social fragmentation outside certain specific regions
• Shortages of goods in prior periods of difficulty gave Russians experience in transitioning to a barter system, which was an absolute necessity during hyperinflation
• A sense of collective ownership resulted in the dual phenomena of workers continuing to show up to work despite not being paid and management looking the other way when workers stripped their workplace of goods for bartering with
Now compare this to the US. Huge amounts of consumer goods are imported, designed to break, and unrepairable. Public transportation is scarce, unreliable, and dangerous. Only a third of American homeowners (65% of the population) own their home outright. Many of us have to traverse vast distances to reach stores or a hospital. Energy, healthcare, and agriculture are operated for profit by a patchwork of private enterprises heavily reliant on imported inputs. Many of the goods Americans rely on are made with just-in-time manufacturing, with razor-thin room for error in the price of materials. Our society is politically, ethnically, and religiously heterogenous, with the rifts between the various tribes deepening every year.
Despite the USSR's advantages in a collapse scenario, the suffering was immense. From 1990 to 1995, Russia alone experienced 4 million excess deaths attributable to the collapse. My father in law (previously an army officer) supported his family by installing security doors in flats, a booming business because of the danger of break-ins by organized gangs. Drug and alcohol abuse were rampant. It took more than a decade for the country to turn the corner after its economy's controlled demolition.
Some people quibble with Orlov over his peak oil obsession but this comparative study is very interesting to me. Even if you don't think a collapse of the US is likely, it's worth trying to learn a lesson from the largest national collapse in living memory. If you don't want to read his book, he's got a seminar on this:
youtu.be/kySDKESt3_M?si
posted by Satish Sharma at
14:05
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