Haaretz: Why Trump's Venezuela Playbook Won't Work in Iran
Haaretz: Why Trump's Venezuela Playbook Won't Work in Iran
'When U.S. President Donald Trump harshly warned Iran not to dare harm the protesters in Tehran, adding that his administration was "locked and loaded" to act against the Ayatollah regime, only to order the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife a day later, it seemed that Delta Force helicopters were making a quick stopover in Caracas before heading to the Middle East.'
'The wave of news commentaries on Saturday following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro created the impression that an organized U.S. plan was underway, one in which the Trump administration was poised to liberate the world from all dictatorial regimes (except, of course, those in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and others).'
'There is, however, no assurance that Iranians seek regime change imposed by the United States, Israel or any other foreign power. Many Iranians remember the promises and encouragement by yet another Republican president, George H.W. Bush, to Iraq's Kurds and Shiites in 1991, when he called on them to rebel against Saddam Hussein's regime, promising military aid, only to forsake them to face the Iraqi army on their own and be crushed by it.'
'The regime's insistence on framing the protest as a justified expression of public frustration with the economic situation means that it believes that it can still resolve the issue. However, a real solution lies only in the lifting of international and U.S. sanctions, which became harsher after the so-called snapback mechanism was lifted in September, triggering the re-imposition of UN sanctions on Iran.
'Reading the comments posted on social media and opinion pieces in the media by so-called reformists shows a range of positions. Some hope for the quick and immediate fall of the regime, and others only seek substantial improvement in their living conditions under it."You want to topple the regime, but will a new one provide us with water, gas, power, apartments and jobs? Who would head such a new regime?" wondered an Iranian in response to a report on the Rouydad24 news site.'
'.. there are those who warn that removing Khamenei could trigger a civil war, not only between reformists and conservatives, the religious leadership and the liberal elite or Iran's Persian majority and minorities, but also between regime loyalists and whatever new political force that would seek to govern the country.There are many examples of such a predicament unfolding, and it's enough to see what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, to realize the possible results of such a civil war.'
'From the comments:
-'Iranians still recall how Israel supported the shah and trained his secret police in murder and torture while getting sweetheart deals and stiffing Iran in a $2B oil purchase. Still a detested pariah state in Iran and much of the world.'
-'My understanding is that Iranians are proud Persians who are patriotic to their nation however much they may disagree with "clerical rule". They are unlikely to fall behind a foreign sponsored revolution - particularly under Israeli "sponsorship".'
-'Trump's Venezuela playbook isn't going to work in Venezuela.'
posted by Satish Sharma at
12:34
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