This is a must-read interview of George Yeo, one of the wisest statesmen in Asia
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2002936497952149686
This is a must-read interview of George Yeo, one of the wisest statesmen in Asia (he was cabinet minister in Singapore during 21 years, including Minister for Foreign Affairs during 7 years).
His take on the US's change of strategy: "[Trump] recognises that the US cannot dominate the world the way it used to in the past. The US hasn’t got the financial power or the manufacturing capability. So it has to retreat some and consolidate around its own core and concentrate on healing itself. [...] Trump recognises the reality of a multipolar world. The US is primus inter pares in such a world. By moving closer to all other poles, as Kissinger recommended, it will remain influential for a long time."
He also says that "sooner or later, the number of US military bases around the world will be reduced." And "as Pax Americana recedes, regional equilibriums will be affected."
All in all he says "the US is in decline now" which "is something to worry about" and "no one knows" if it can recover.
On Taiwan he says "I don’t see Taiwanese dying for an independent Taiwan" and that "there is growing realisation [in Taiwan] that the road to independence is a dead end." He thinks that "Taiwan is separate only because the US is there" and that "whether or not there is trouble over Taiwan depends on the US" because "China’s overwhelming preference is peaceful reunification."
He urges the Taiwanese to negotiate reunification sooner rather than later: "negotiating earlier with Beijing is better than negotiating later, which was [Singapore’s first prime minister] Lee Kuan Yew’s point many years ago. Taiwan can enjoy more autonomy by negotiating now rather than waiting another 10 years."
On the current Japan-China row he said this might be due either "to Sanae Takaichi’s newness to her position as prime minister... she might not have realised the gravity of her remarks" or she did it deliberately "in order to provoke a strong reaction from China and use that to win popularity and justify higher defence spending."
In either case, he thinks it was "not wise for Takaichi" to do so because "the Chinese will now reopen the Ryukyu issue – not officially, but through social media and other unofficial channels. Ryukyu as part of Japan was never part of the deal among the victorious powers at the end of the second world war. There was only agreement for Japan to retain the four main islands." He believes that "raising Ryukyu as an issue will deter Japanese politicians from being adventurous on Taiwan."
There you go. His discourse definitely departs from the typical orthodoxies you hear around these questions. But when you're a small state that has survived and thrived for 60 years by reading power dynamics correctly, you tend to develop a clear-eyed view of how the world actually works.
Link to the whole interview which is very much worth reading in full: scmp.com/news/china/dip
posted by Satish Sharma at
10:19
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