Friday, 10 October 2025

This is absolutely unprecedented. With this China effectively gets veto power over three critical supply chains simultaneously:

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1976275085158670813

This really isn't getting enough attention. China has truly gone all in on export controls today, in a major way. Not only did they announce the unprecedented rare earths restrictions that I posted about earlier 👇 (targeted, among others, at the advanced semiconductors sector) but they issued 4 consecutive announcements in total with other export controls on: - The machines and expertise to process rare earths - not just the rare earths themselves, but all the specialized equipment and technical know-how to turn rare earth into usable materials (obviously making it all the harder to try to move rare earth processing away from China) - High-performance batteries - specifically those above 300 Wh/kg needed for long-range EVs and advanced drones. And, again, export controls on all the factory equipment to make them too. - The materials inside batteries - both graphite anodes and cathode materials (the two electrodes that are essential for batteries to function at all). Export controls also cover the specialized equipment to manufacture all of these components. - Industrial diamonds and cutting tools - the ultra-hard materials that are used ubiquitously in precision manufacturing, for instance to cut silicon wafers for computer chips This is absolutely unprecedented. With this China effectively gets veto power over three critical supply chains simultaneously: advanced semiconductors (via rare earths and related equipment), battery-powered vehicles and drones, and precision manufacturing across industries (via superhard materials). It will all officially take effect on November 8, in one month. The official explanation (mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/202) is to prevent "dual use" and "safeguard national security", incidentally the same official explanation the US gave for its own chip export controls to China. As Mao once said: "our method is to learn warfare through warfare"... Or you could also say what goes around comes around... Here you can find all the announcements collated in a Guancha article (in Chinese). It's very, very extensive: guancha.cn/politics/2025_
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Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is actually big, potentially huge, notably because China's new rare earth export controls include a provision (point 4 here: mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/) whereby anyone using rare earths to develop advanced semiconductors (defined as 14nm-and-below) will require case-by-case
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https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1976275085158670813

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