why Mearsheimer is wrong on China.

 https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1938143673054859399

Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand

I've been wanting to do this for a long time: write a comprehensive article on why Mearsheimer is wrong on China. I actually had a debate with John via message 2 years ago on this very question but we sort of left it in in limbo, with him doubling down on his call that the US should "contain" China, and me replying that although it might make sense from a selfish US standpoint (even though I even highly doubt that), a true realist theorist shouldn't base his theories on the passport he happens to be born with. My article goes much further, demonstrating that Mearsheimer is wrong on China in 4 key ways: 1) He promotes what he condemns. He is one of the fiercest critics of U.S. behavior on the world stage and he has brilliantly demonstrated that the more power the U.S. holds, the more destructive and reckless it gets. Yet his position on China calls for preserving and expanding the very power he shows consistently produces strategic disasters and immense human suffering. 2) For a realist, he’s not realistic. His theory predicts that America will inevitably contain China's rise, but the actual evidence not only shows that the opposite is true, but that containing China is now structurally impossible. 3) Why would this time be different? His most accurate predictions ironically come from understanding that America consistently acts against his own realist logic - getting bogged down in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq. So why would the country he consistently says ignores his realist framework suddenly do so when it comes to China? 4) If America doesn't act 'offensive realist', why would China? If his theories, by his own admission, consistently fail to predict his own country's behavior, why trust them to predict China's - especially given China's completely different cultural context that he's unfamiliar with? You can find the link to my article in the next tweet.

5:53 PM · Jun 26, 2025

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https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1938143673054859399