Sunday, 12 January 2025

This is probably the most authoritative study to date on the number of violent deaths in Gaza in the period Oct 7th to June 30, 2024:

 https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1877936164260524173

This is probably the most authoritative study to date on the number of violent deaths in Gaza in the period Oct 7th to June 30, 2024: thelancet.com/journals/lance It's peer-reviewed, and conducted by academics at the University of Cambridge, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions. They use a "three-list capture–recapture" method, meaning that they recoup death toll data from 3 independent sources: Gaza hospital lists, an online survey for Palestinians to report relatives’ deaths, and social media obituaries. Their estimation - with 95% confidence - is that, up until the 30th of June 2024 (so more than 6 months ago), 64 260 Palestinians had been violently killed by Israel and that 59.1% of those were women, children and elderly (above 65 years old). This number is 41% above that of the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which goes to show they significantly underestimated the death count. And again, it's very important to keep in mind: these are *violent deaths* only so not people who died of diseases or starvation. And these are only people whose body made its way to the hospital so it *doesn't account* for the thousands buried under the rubble. Which means that the actual total death count is probably several multiple higher (as an other Lancet study points out, the ratio of indirect deaths per direct death in conflicts such as these is at least 4X: thelancet.com/journals/lance).

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1877936164260524173

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