How Russia Is Overwhelming Ukrainian Frontlines

 

moon of alabama

There seems to be a bit of a panic along the Ukrainian front lines. Several units, for lack of men, have recently left positions they were supposed to hold. The daily progress of the Russian forces along the line is increasing.

The medium level of the Ukrainian military seems to understand that their defense is breaking down.

Strana reports (machine translation):

[T]he Third assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine called to prepare for the defense of the Dnipropetrovsk region

Deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Maxim Zhorin called for preparing the Dnipropetrovsk region for defense.
...
"We need to prepare the Dnipropetrovsk region for defense today. We should not constantly move from city to city, while at the same time hastily preparing these cities for defense. All this needs to be planned, and build a strong line of defense ahead of time. Instead of waiting for the front line to move to another locality, " Zhorin said.

The 3rd Assault Brigade is part of the fascist Azov organization. Politicians also chime in:

Mariana Bezuglaya urged to prepare circular defense of Pavlograd and Izyum

MP Mariana Bezuglaya said that it is necessary to prepare a circular defense of Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovsk region, and Izyum, Kharkiv region.
...
"Selidovo has already been mostly conquered by Russians. They entered Kupyansk. Half of the Kursk region has already been returned. It is necessary to prepare a circular defense of Pavlograd and Izyum, " Bezuglaya said.

Izyum is 50 kilometer west of the current frontline. The distance from the eastern frontline to Pavlovgrad is about 100 kilometer. Dnipropetrovsk, shorter Dnipro, is 150 kilometer from the eastern frontline and 100 kilometer from the southern frontline.

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That commanders and politicians are calling for new defenses so far from the current front lines tells us that they expect the Ukrainian military to soon lose the ground in between.

The reasons for that becomes obvious when one recognizes the current correlation of forces and the overwhelming capacity of Russian weapons.

In February 2022 the Russian military units entered Ukraine in peace configuration (i.e. as Battalion Tactical Groups) with a total of less that 100,000 men. The Ukrainian army at that time had about 260,000 men who were soon joined by a high number of volunteers.

The current Russian forces in Ukraine are now in regular war time brigade formations with a total of several hundred thousands of men. There have sufficient reserves to rotate frontline units every few days. The Ukrainian military has likewise grown in size but the growth has mostly occurred in the back. Logistic troops and various staff formations far from the frontline are trying their best to stay away from the fighting. Its frontline forces have actually shrunk and are now thought to be below 100,000 men. Those troops are no longer motivated. They lack experienced leaders and have been in their positions without rotations for weeks if not months.

A lack of artillery ammunition has been a continuous problem for the Ukrainian army but it recently got better. There are now sufficient supplies but that is likely only because the number of Ukrainian artillery guns has been shrinking. Nearly half of the Ukrainian artillery guns reported as damaged or destroyed by the Russian daily reports are now of foreign provenance. Soviet era D-20 and D-30 guns, which once provided the backbone of Ukrainian artillery formations, are not yet rare but more and more missing.

But what is really killing the Ukrainian army, in ever higher numbers, is the Russian superiority in distance weapons.

Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 22:09 UTC · Oct 25, 2024

Number of Shahed-type strike drones, launched by Russia against Ukraine during last 30 days (red on chart) reached 1,780.

Also number of glide bombs launched by Russian aviation in last 7 days (yellow on chart) for the first time is over 1,000 (1,037 as reported by UA general staff)

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The Shahed type drones, more than 50 per day(!) now, are hitting Ukrainian infrastructure and industry far from the frontline. They are overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. Even on its best days the Ukrainian military now claims to shot down only half of them. That is down from claims of successfully destroying 90+% of all incoming drones.

But the Russian glide bombs - some 140 per day - are an even more serious issue. The FABs, which carry one ton or more of explosives, are launched by Russian fighter planes from outside of the Ukrainian air defense envelope. They glide some 80 kilometer before hitting their designated targets with utter precision. No field fortification and no regular basement of a Ukrainian town house can withstand such a hit.

The FABs, against which Ukraine has no means to defend, are destroying the Ukrainian units which hold the front lines.

The Ukrainian military will obviously lose this contest. Moving the defense lines back, and building fortifications around Dnipro, will not change anything. As soon as Russian troops come near to those lines all fortifications will be demolished. Only then will the Russian's move in.

It is more than high time for the Ukrainian military to concede that its has no way of winning and that it, moreover, has lost the ability to defend the country.

The Ukrainian military commander in chief must press the politicians to seek peace.

Posted by b on October 26, 2024 at 14:21 UTC | Permalink

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