Emmanuel Todd On Europe's Hopefully Fading Submission To The U.S.

 

moon  of  alabama

This blog has been following the writings of Emmanuel Todd for some time:

• Emmanuel Todd on Europe - December 19, 2008
• Seeing Social Decline As A National Security Threat May Change Conservative Policies - November 30, 2018
• Transgender - The Inability To Distinguish Facts From Wishes - March 14, 2024

In the later one I had quoted a New York Times review of Todd's latest book:

This Prophetic Academic Now Foresees the West’s Defeat (archived) - New York Times, Mar 9 2024

American leadership is failing: That is the argument of an eccentric new book that since January has stood near the top of France’s best-seller lists. It is called “La Défaite de l’Occident” (“The Defeat of the West”). Its author, Emmanuel Todd, is a celebrated historian and anthropologist who in 1976, in a book called “The Final Fall,” used infant-mortality statistics to predict that the Soviet Union was headed for collapse.
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While Mr. Todd is, again, not judgmental on sexual matters, he is judgmental on intellectual ones. The inability to distinguish facts from wishes astounds him at every turn of the Ukraine war. The American hope early in the war that China might cooperate in a sanctions regime against Russia, thereby helping the United States refine a weapon that would one day be aimed at China itself, is, for Mr. Todd, a “delirium.”

The Italian version of "The Defeat of the West", Todd's latest book, has just been published. It is the occasion for an interview with Corriere Di Bologna.  The answers Todd is giving during the interview deserve your attention (edited machine translation):

Q:You argue that Europe has delegated the representation of the West to the United States and is now paying the price. How do you think this trend can be changed?

A: “In the present state we cannot do anything else. A war has begun. It is the outcome of this war that will decide the fate of Europe. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, European submission to the Americans would be prolonged for a century. If, as I believe, the United States is defeated, NATO will disintegrate and Europe will be left free.

Even more important than a Russian victory will be the halting of the Russian army on the Dnepr and the unwillingness of the Putin regime to attack western Europe militarily. With 144 million people, a shrinking population and 17 million square kilometers, the Russian state is already struggling to occupy its territory. Russia will have neither the means nor the desire to expand once the borders of pre-communist Russia are reconstituted. Western Russophobic hysteria fantasizing about the desire for Russian expansion in Europe is simply ridiculous to a serious historian.

The psychological shock awaiting Europeans will be to realize that NATO does not exist to protect us but to control us.”

Since the beginning of the recent phase of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, I have argued that Russia does not want to take all of Ukraine but only those parts which, up to 1922, had been traditional parts of Russia before the communists added them to the Ukrainian borderland.

It is nice to see that Emmanuel Todd agrees with this analysis:

It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.

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This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.

Excursus:

The yellow part of that map marked 'Ukraine in 1654' was actually the land of the Eastern Orthodox Zaporozhian Cossacks. Under threat from the Catholic Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth, which at the time held the green parts under serfdom, they negotiated the Pereiaslav Agreement (1654) with Russia and pledged allegiance to the Tsar. They area thus became an autonomous part of Russia.

End Excursus

The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.

I have also argued previously that the current hostile German government position towards Russia is unnatural and will be corrected. In his interview Todd also agrees with this (edited machine translation):

Do you think Europe took the final step toward this subordination [to the U.S.] during the conflicts in the Balkans, and especially with the Kosovo issue?

“No, it all started in Ukraine. During the Iraq war, after Kosovo, Putin, Schröder and Chirac held joint press conferences. This terrified Washington. It seemed that America could be expelled from the European continent. Russia's separation from Germany thus became a priority for American strategists. Making the situation in Ukraine worse served this purpose.

Forcing the Russians into war to prevent Ukraine's de facto integration into NATO was, initially, a major diplomatic success for Washington. The shock of war paralyzed Germany and allowed the Americans, in general confusion, to blow up the Nordstream pipeline, a symbol of the economic understanding between Germany and Russia.

Of course, in a second phase, that of American defeat, American control over Europe will be pulverized. Germany and Russia will meet again. This conflict is in a sense artificial. The natural thing, in a low-fertility Europe, with its aging population, is the complementarity between German industry and Russian energy and mineral resources.”

The current situation and the sanctions on Russia are utterly harmful for Germany's industry and the people depending on it. I therefore hope that the process of reconnecting Germany with Russia will proceed as soon as possible. The current government which, for whatever reason, had agreed with the U.S. course on Ukraine, should be punished for the great harm it has caused.

There are a few more bits in the Todd interview. I'll leave it to you to read them.

Posted by b on October 9, 2024 at 14:40 UTC | Permalink

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