Ukraine SitRep: Kursk Attack Derailed Partial Ceasefire Deal

 

moon of alabama

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast has even worse consequences for Ukraine than had been known so far.

Over the last six months, in revenge for Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure, especially oil refineries, the Russian forces created serious damage on Ukraine's electricity network. Nearly every conventional power generation facility in Ukraine has been damaged. Half of Ukraine's 18 Gigawatts of electricity generation capacity has been taken offline. The damaged power stations were often also used to provide heating to large blocks of Soviet type apartments. Without power and heating it will be a very difficult winter for many people in Ukraine.

There was interest on both sides to stop the campaigns against the other sides infrastructure. An agreement about it was in the making and was possible. But, as Washington Post reports, the Ukrainian attack on Kursk blew it apart:

Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.

But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials.
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The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing the arrangement for an energy strike moratorium with Kyiv and Moscow for the past two months. The official said the two sides agreed to a summit in Doha with just minor details left to be worked out.

“After Kursk, the Russians balked,” another person familiar with the talks said.

Instead of its senseless attack on Kursk Ukraine could have had an agreement that would make it possible to get through the winter without many blackouts and other interruptions. It blew that chance.

The moral uplift for Ukrainian forces created by the attack on Kursk is already waning. Russia has not pulled any of its troops involved in the attacks in the east to defend Kursk. It has instead pulled reserves from elsewhere. One of the hoped for effects of the Kursk incursion is thereby not happening.

Ukraine's attack was only made possible by pulling troops for the eastern frontline. Moreover artillery supplies, which were already problematic, have become even scarcer:

Soldiers fighting in the Donetsk region said they had been buoyed by the incursion into Russia. But they also said it would use up weapons and ammunition that they crucially need. One commander stationed at a hot spot on the eastern front said his brigade had fewer than four mortar guns to defend its position, and could fire only 10 shells a day per mortar.

Each day the Ukraine is losing more ground in the east. Meanwhile its Kursk incursion has already culminated and it will be a deadly struggle to hold onto the captured ground.

Ukraine has brought in high value assets to hinder Russian reserves from reaching the area. However, near to the frontline these assets have difficulties to survive.

Anomandris Purake @Malazan_enjoyer - 22:09 UTC · Aug 16, 2024

So the Russians put up a pontoon over the Seym River immediately after or even before the bridge was destroyed.

Ukraine meanwhile lost 3 HIMARS, 3 patriots and 1 IRIS-T making potholes on the bridge. I would say that's a very good exchange. I hope they try more of this.

Additionally reported were the destruction of a Polish made S-125 air defense system and a fourth HIMARS platform.

A New York Times analysis suggests, just as I did previously, that the main aim of the Kursk campaign was to convince the Ukraine's western supporters that it can still win the war and therefore deserves further support:

The real goals of the operation may not be on the Russia battlefield.

After the failure of Ukraine’s much-advertised counteroffensive last year and the ongoing losses in the east, it appears to be trying to change the war’s narrative.

The Ukrainians may be trying to convince the West that they will not give up, and that the United States in particular should allow them to use American long-range cruise missiles inside Russia.

The U.S. will hopefully not allow the Ukraine to extend its attacks deep into Russia. If it does allow these there will be a point where Russia will have to strike back, hard, against U.S. assets.

Ukraine is not the only country that has destructible power plants.

Posted by b on August 17, 2024 at 8:49 UTC | Permalink

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