The Israeli plan has now been exposed

 

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  by Abdul Majeed Swailem

The only guaranteed path for Israel after nearly nine months of its criminal war on the Gaza Strip, and the accompanying aggressive battles along the southern border of Lebanon, is to reduce the pace of the war there and wait for this to lead to a de-escalation in southern Lebanon so that the West Bank turns into the main battlefield for the war.

This is the only way that Israel believes will “preserve” the unity of the “government coalition” and continue the war on the Gaza Strip in what the White House calls the “third phase” leading to military control over the Gaza Strip without the deployment of ground forces in the inhabited areas. These forces have been stationed in Netzarim and the Philadelphia Corridor, as well as across the entire perimeter of the Strip and inside several kilometres deep into it along the Gaza envelope.

Through this control, the war on the Gaza Strip will continue with sudden aggressive raids on all the points that the occupying state sees as targets for its planes and artillery, strikes from the sea and the use of specialised brigades for limited and specific ground operations.

Thus, the war on the Gaza Strip will continue, and Israel can remain in control of the entry of aid, and in control of preventing the rebuilding of the Palestinian Resistance throughout the Gaza Strip, without exposing its forces to further exhaustion.

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According to this plan, it can also continue negotiating the captives’ issue, continue searching for them, without having to pay large political or military prices and continue destroying everything remaining in the Gaza Strip that it deems suitable to destroy.

The Occupying state hopes that this de-escalation will lead to it seizing the “support” card from the hands of the Resistance in Lebanon or turning this card to something less intense than the eruption of the anger of those displaced from the north. It is hoping to move towards a new phase that leads to indirect political negotiations with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, not necessarily to reach an agreement but, rather, in order to set new ceilings for this “support”, leading to new rules of engagement that will greatly reduce the burdens posed by the current clashes, which completely prevent the return of the displaced, and completely disrupts all aspects of life in large parts of the north.

In this case, Benjamin Netanyahu will claim that his army has not been defeated, that its deterrence force is still effective, that the war is continuing with new means and at renewed pace, and that he has come to a position that enables him to restore the image of the Jewish state, including relations with the US and the West. He may also be counting on certain escapes from the ICJ and ICC recommendations.

Netanyahu will also claim that he has defeated the Palestinian Resistance in the Gaza Strip without a ceasefire agreement, that he removed the threat posed by 7 October, to a large extent, and that he will not agree to any political or administrative arrangements in the Gaza Strip unless they are in accordance with these “givens”.

Netanyahu, his staff and his entire fascist government believe that the success of this plan will help him evade the long-talked-about war on the northern front and prevent matters from sliding into a comprehensive or devastating regional war, at this stage at least.

By transferring the Israeli military weight to the West Bank, he will be able to be completely loyal to his government coalition and to all the settlers, and he will claim that he has achieved two major goals: The first is subjugating the Resistance in the Strip and, the second, ending the possibility of there being a Palestinian State in the West Bank, and working to end the PA by stripping it of any actual role, keeping its existence a formality without actual powers until it loses the ability to survive, dissolves on its own, and loses the ability to take action. At this point, its functionality will be reconsidered based on a new regional and international consensus that does not go beyond autonomy limited to population areas of less than 30 per cent of the demographic across the entire West Bank.

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Netanyahu will announce that he has restored the army’s capabilities, restored the power of deterrence and that he has fragmented the Palestinian political situation and defeated all its Resistance, or that his defeat process is ongoing and that he himself has not been defeated. He will claim that he has managed to emerge “victorious” from this war, despite the heavy prices the occupying state paid, despite all the attacks it was “subjected to” on several fronts at the same time.

In order to perpetuate this image of “victory”, he is now prepared to unleash a bloodbath in the West Bank and to destroy the Palestinian camps throughout the entire West Bank. He is preparing militias and groups of settlers so that their role will complement the role of the army in terrorising the Palestinians and making their lives hell in Area C. This makes it easier for settler groups to take over more of the land, have more settlements and more means of controlling the larger part of the population in that area.

Netanyahu believes that it has become possible to “absorb” the Israeli internal situation to avoid going to early elections, and perhaps he is betting on the fragmentation of the Israeli “opposition”.

The Occupying state’s plan, as seen by Netanyahu and his aides, appears to be a “clever” plan and it may be presented to Israeli society as such. Indeed, it is not at all unlikely that the US administration will approve it in full, with minor exceptions regarding the role of armed militias, in its implementation.

As for the West and the majority of Arab regimes, they will not stand against it directly, and will continue to object to it, especially with regard to the role of the Palestinian Authority, the role of fascist militias and others, but none will take even a single position that would pose a threat to its continuation.

In this sense, Netanyahu will convince Israeli society, as he imagines, that the world that was built around Palestine and the unprecedented solidarity that the world has witnessed regarding the rights of the Palestinian people, will consequentially dissolve and that the state of the Zionist project will not submit to anyone. He will convince them that the project is on track with a plan to resolve the conflict and that, regardless of what it will cost, it is ultimately possible.

This Israeli plan is nothing but a mirage, and a sham presented by Netanyahu from the position of a defeated person who lacks capabilities and qualifications. It is a plan to create the image of an illusion of victory, and the Occupying state will not be able to escape defeat.

On the contrary, this plan is the biggest, most important and most glaring evidence that Israel is only planning to sink again, continue to disconnect from reality and portray political hallucinations as an implementable strategy.

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This article appeared in Arabic in Al-Ayyam on 1 July, 2024.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240703-the-israeli-plan-has-now-been-exposed/