Ukraine SitRep: Krynky - Zelenski's Rose Tinted Media Strategy - New Orders From DC

moon of alabama

In late October the Ukrainian army started to send soldiers to the left bank of the Dnieper River which is held by Russian forces. Dozens of soldiers crossed from the norther Kherson region using rubber dinghies and other small boats. The captured parts of the rural town Krynky (Krinki).

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The usefulness of this operation, carried out by Ukrainian marine brigades, was always in question. Was this supposed to be the start of a larger crossing? That seemed unlikely as the small canals through the marshes and the intense drone coverage do not allow for a large movement.

Was this a diversion? Possibly, but a diversion from what?

Every night the Ukrainians sent new boats with fresh forces and supplies and to evacuated wounded soldiers. The Russian military did not attempt to evict the Ukrainians by ground forces but covered them intensely with artillery, air-bombing and drones. Boat after boat was destroyed during the crossing attempts. In the summary of last weeks operation the Russian Defense ministry claimed to have destroyed three such boats per day.

To me this looked like the unsuccessful holding of Bakhmut earlier this year - a waste of soldiers for only a short propaganda gain.

It took some time for western media to question the operation. Last week the BBC was the first to give a first hand account of it:

Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'

Outnumbered and outgunned, one front-line soldier has given a sobering account of Ukraine's struggle to cling on to its foothold on the east bank of the vast Dnipro river.

Several hundred Ukrainian soldiers have made it there as part of a counter-offensive launched six months ago.

Under relentless Russian fire, the soldier spent several weeks on the Russian-occupied side of the river as Ukraine sought to establish a bridgehead around the village of Krynky. The BBC is not naming him to protect his identity.

His account, sent via a messaging app, speaks of troop boats blown out of the water, inexperienced reinforcements and a feeling of abandonment by Ukraine's military commanders.

It highlights growing tensions as Ukraine's defence against Russia's invasion grinds to the end of another year.

Ukraine's military told the BBC they are not commenting on the situation in that area for security reasons.

The soldier is not happy about the situation:

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

"We thought that the Russians would flee." One wonders who had indoctrinated these guys. Now there seems to be no larger plan. The orders are to just hold onto Krynky and to die.

"Several brigades were supposed to be posted here, not individual companies - we just don't have enough men.

"There are a lot of young guys among us. We need people, but trained people, not the green ones we have there now. There are guys who had spent just three weeks in training, and only managed to shoot a few times.

"It's a total nightmare. A year ago, I wouldn't have said that, but now, sorry, I'm fed up.

"Everyone who wanted to volunteer for war came a long time ago - it's too hard now to tempt people with money. Now we're getting those who didn't manage to escape the draft. You'll laugh at this, but some of our marines can't even swim."

Ukrainian media, which so far had to avoid any criticism of the government and military, is also becoming grumbly. Via Strana (machine translation):

Heavy Krynki. Problematic issues related to the AFU bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region

The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper is meaningless and leads only to heavy losses.

This is reported by the Odessa edition of "Dumskaya".

"The sailors cross the river, and most of them are killed on the approach to the shore. Those who survived and crossed the river will be ironed with everything that is in the arsenal of Russia. People are just constantly being thrown over the river — wave after wave. There is no question of any further breakthrough, now the forces are being spent just to stay there. For what?

It would have made a difference if we had a promotion elsewhere. Then these bridgeheads would distract the enemy. But no, we're already defending somewhere else. So why all this? The command needs to urgently curtail this operation. It was clearly going to be linked to the offensive in the Zaporozhye region, but it has already ended. In this regard, the ongoing attempts to throw Marines on the left bank — something beyond good and evil, "- writes "Duma".

Today's Financial Times picks up on the growing grumbling with the Ukrainian society:

Ukrainians question Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘rose-tinted’ speeches (archived)

For more than 650 days in a row, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given at least one video address to the nation — praising his troops, celebrating advances along the front lines and reaffirming resolve in the face of Russian aggression.

The message is always “we’re moving forward”, with the aim of maintaining optimism at home and abroad, according to three people familiar with the communications strategy. The policy is applied at all state levels, from ministries and local administrations to military commanders and includes strict censorship of bad news such as Ukrainian casualty numbers or successful Russian strikes.

But with Ukraine enjoying few military achievements this year and western support faltering, the communications strategy is creating a rift between the presidential administration and military leadership, say officials from the armed forces, former presidential staffers and communication strategists.

“We need to add more realism ... and we have to be as courageous about it as we were on February 24 [2022],” said a person connected to the presidential communications strategy in reference to the day Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In his review of the FT piece Andrew Korybko summarizes:

The socio-political conditions that are being created as a result of Zelensky’s refusal to recognize reality and de-escalate the conflict with a view towards freezing it lend credence to what Russian foreign spy chief Naryshkin said on Monday regarding the West’s growing interest in replacing him. He explained that the West doesn’t consider him capable of doing the aforesaid due to how far he’s gone in building up his hawkish image, hence the need to possibly swap him out for someone else in order to initiate this.

Yesterday the Ukrainian president was seen in Buenos Aires where he attended the inauguration of Argentine's new rightwing president Javier Milei. He also had a short but seemingly hefty exchange with Hungary's prime minister Victor Orban who is currently blocking new EU action and money in support of Ukraine.

Before he could fly back to Kiev Zelenski received an order to appear in Washington DC:

President Biden has invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House for a meeting on Tuesday, December 12 to underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion. As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s urgent needs and the vital importance of the United States’ continued support at this critical moment.

The Biden administration may seek talks between Zelenski and Senate and House leaders. But such talks are unlikely to unfreeze the currently held up future aid to Ukraine. It will also use the conservation with Zelenski to push him towards negotiating with Russia. Or said differently: to read him the riot act.

If the Ukraine does not start to negotiated with Russia within the next few weeks Zelenski will be replaced.

Posted by b on December 11, 2023 at 15:42 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/12/ukraine-sitrep-krynky-zelenskis-rose-tinted-media-strategy-new-orders-from-dc.html