SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Ukraine SitRep

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Milley is uttering deluded nonsense.

U.S. Joint Chiefs' Gen. Milley cites Ukrainian counteroffensive 'breakthrough'

Ukraine's soldiers have penetrated the first line of Russian defense in spots along the southern front between the two countries, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley said Friday during a television interview with a Jordanian news outlet.
"Specifically on the axes of advance that (Ukrainian forces) are attacking right now, (Ukrainian forces) have attacked through the main defense belt," Milley told Al-Mamlaka Television.

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Show me a picture of Ukrainian tanks tackling a dragon's teeth barrier.

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You have none? Well, then you haven't even reached the first defense line.

Ukraine has taken Robotyne, a hamlet in ruins that once housed 480 people. It has cost the Ukrainian army at least a full battalion, 500 men and 30 armored vehicles, of its dwindling forces.

The CIA media asset David Ignatius has delivered the latest White House message on Ukraine. It is continuing to push for a fight down to the last Ukrainian:

As Biden administration officials assess Ukraine’s slow progress in this summer’s counteroffensive, they have been candidly discussing with Kyiv what they see as “lessons learned.” The bottom line for the administration is that this war will probably grind into next year — and that the United States and its allies must remain steadfast in helping Ukraine keep pushing forward.
I heard this same sentiment across all levels of the U.S. government in recent days. The summer has been frustrating and, in some ways, disappointing for Ukraine and its Western backers. But rather than look for a quick diplomatic exit ramp, most senior U.S. officials appear more convinced than ever of the need to stand fast with Kyiv. The United States, in their view, cannot be seen to abandon its ally.

There is a shimmer of realism breaking through but it is mixed with fantasies about the chances to bog Russia down:

But Ukraine probably won’t deal any decisive blow before year’s end. That means a continuation of this grueling war into 2024 and beyond, and a continuation of the heavy casualties and emotional trauma for both sides. U.S. officials believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still thinks he can outlast Ukraine and the West.

Well, yes, Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. Just look at the stupid advice the West is giving to Ukraine:

American commanders have long believed that the Ukrainians waste artillery fire in crushing barrages that emulate Soviet tactics. By one U.S. estimate, the Ukrainians have fired about 2 million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition since the war began, nearly exhausting Western stockpiles. U.S. officials urge Ukraine instead to weight its artillery fires toward the most important targets and use them to advance quickly toward their objectives.
Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities along the sprawling front. On all these points, U.S. officials believe the Ukrainians are responding positively. But the discussion has been prickly in recent weeks.

The above is not sound military advice but an acknowledgement that the West can not produce enough artillery ammunition and drones for Ukraine to proceed:

A recent Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report estimates that Russia fired 12 million artillery shells in 2022 and estimated the military would discharge seven million in 2023. This could indicate that Soviet-era stockpiles are thinning out. Still, the report notes that Russia is producing 2.5 million shells a year, in addition to munitions imports from North Korea and Iran.
In stark contrast, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in January that the United States could only produce 93,000 155mm shells a year, all of which go to training exercises. If the military achieves an accelerated production schedule, it will produce 240,000 shells yearly, still less than 10 percent of Russia’s current production. Ukrainian artillery fires 8,000 rounds daily, consuming an entire month of current U.S. munitions production. Even if the Pentagon achieves its stated goal of manufacturing 90,000 shells a month by FY 2025, it still is only half of Russia’s current production level.

That lack of production capability is being covered up by a 'send anything we have, no matter how useful' attitude:

As Biden administration officials assess the likelihood that the war will continue into next year and perhaps beyond, they’re considering several important new augmentations of Western support. There’s growing backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions, for example, which could strike deeper than the artillery-fired versions the United States began supplying last month.

The White House also wants Ukraine to increase its terror attacks on Russian ground:

With Ukrainian forces stymied on the ground, U.S. officials believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky will take the fight increasingly to Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Friday’s reported Ukrainian attacks — with 42 drones launched at Crimea and a missile aimed at Moscow, according to Russian reports — is a foretaste of what’s ahead. The Biden administration’s position is that it doesn’t encourage or enable Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but officials do expect more.

They try to play innocent but in reality, as the Economist reports, the targeting of those attacks is done by Western intelligence:

Russia’s extensive air-defence and electronic-warfare capacity means that any Ukrainian attack requires meticulous planning. Ukraine has developed algorithms that appear to work. Operators launch in the early morning (when defenders’ concentration might be lapsing) and use an order of attack designed to keep air defences busy. They gather intelligence (often from Western partners) about radars, electronic warfare and air-defence assets.

Those are diversion attacks, not stuff that will decide the war.

The strategic advantage is clearly on the Russian side:

Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, the military architect of German unification and one of history’s most famed soldiers, would instantly grasp the state of affairs in this summer of Ukrainian discontent. After Kiev and its Western backers hyped the prospects for the spring counteroffensive against Russia, the counteroffensive has posted fitful progress to date. Moltke would ascribe the disappointing results to the fact that the Ukrainian military confronts a foe waging the strongest form of warfare.
Strategic offense coupled with tactical defense.
Moltke lays out the logic succinctly: “The tactical defense is the stronger [form of war], the strategic offensive the more effective form—and the only one that leads to the goal.” In other words, the contender that seizes or occupies some object or parcel of territory, then defends it tactically, primes itself for strategic and ultimately political success. In colloquial terms: grab something and hold it, and dare your enemy to come and take it back while fighting at a daunting disadvantage. For the German sage, in short, waging offense through defense blazes a path to triumph.
Advantage: Russia.

Tactical defense is what Russia has been doing over the last months. It has ground down the attacking Ukrainian forces by all means available to it. When they are done with it the Russian forces will launch their strategic offensive campaign. They are then likely to rapidly progress through thinned out Ukrainian lines.

No illegal rocket-launched cluster munitions, no F-16, no terror attack on Russia, can prevent that.

The Ukrainians are simply fighting the wrong war, for the wrong cause:

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 14:49 UTC · Aug 27, 2023
Commander in Chief of Ukrainian Forces & popular Ukrainian writer pose with red & black flag & popular Ukrainian newspaper propagates this. This was flag of far-right OUN & UPA which collaborated with Nazi Germany & was involved in mass murder of Jews, Poles & Ukrainians. This flag was used by far-right Right Sector. Mainstreaming & whitewashing of OUN & UPA symbols, such as their flag & their "Glory to Ukraine & Glory to the Heroes" greeting, continues. https://life.pravda.com.ua/culture/2023/08/27/256152/