AP Obfuscates The Real Black Sea Grain Deal Numbers

 

moon of alabama

Just two days ago I wrote about Grain Deal Shenanigans and summarized:

The grain deal had two parts. One was the access of ships to Ukrainian harbors. The other was the normal export of grain and fertilizer from Russia.

While Russia had facilitated the first part of the deal the 'West' had collectively blocked the second part.

The lengthy creation of exclusive payment channels that can be blocked and controlled by the 'West', as Guterres now offers, is not a solution that Russia will support.

When you see the next headline about 'Russia blocking Ukrainian exports to hungry people' keep the above in mind.

Today I stumbled over a new Associated Press piece of the kind I had warned about:

Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia's war matters to the world

It starts:

Agreements that the United Nations and Turkey brokered with Ukraine and Russia to allow food and fertilizer to get from the warring nations to parts of the world where millions are going hungry have eased concerns over global food security. But they face increasing risks.

It then asserts:

The Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed 32.8 million metric tons (36.2 million tons) of food to be exported from Ukraine since last August, more than half to developing countries, including those getting relief from the World Food Program.

Are half of the Ukrainian grain exports really going to 'developing countries'?

I snooped around a bit to find the numbers. The United Nations has a Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre website with some general explanations and detailed data.

Under 'Vessel Movements' there is a link to an excellent Google spreadsheet which provides cargo totals by destination and commodity:

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It lists the amount of each kind of grains that the countries received due to the Initiative. The countries are classified into four types of 'Income Groups', split into 'Developing' and 'Developed' and marked as 'Least Developed Country' or 'Non Least Developed Country'.

One can sort the table by each column by clicking on its top cell. When one marks several cells in the 'total metric tons' column the spreadsheet will show the total sum of the marked cells on the bottom right.

The total of the listed grain amounts is 30,817,452 metric tons.

The total for all countries that are marked 'developed' is 14,104,113 metric tons. The total for 'developing' countries is 18,713,339 metric tons.

The AP assertion that 'than more than half' of the grain goes to developing countries is thus technically correct. But the developing/developed categorization, which is likely based on decades old World Trade Organization agreements, list China, Turkey and even several rich countries as 'developing'.

China, who's 'developing' status under WTO rules has been questioned, received the most from Ukraine with a total of 7,963,950 metric tons of barley, wheat and sunflower products. Turkey is third with a total of 3,289,155 metric tons.

China has been a long term customer of Ukraine's agricultural products. Turkey is a special case as it facilitates the transport, receives a heavy rebate and resales most of what it gets at higher world market prices:

Turkey buys Ukrainian grain at a 25% discount by the terms of the relevant agreement with Ukraine, as stated by Turkish Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Fahit Kirishci. The discount was about $100 per ton of grain. On June 7, the minister spoke about the course of trilateral negotiations on the “grain corridor” with representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the UN in Istanbul: ...

Both the 'developing' countries Turkey and China are also characterizes as 'upper-middle income' countries. In fact there are even 'developing' countries, like Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which are 'high income'.

While the AP assertion that more than half of the grains goes to 'developing countries' is technically correct, it does not really say anything useful but obfuscates the real numbers.

The total of Ukrainian grain exports to the eight 'least developed' countries, of which seven are also 'low income', was just 1,896,077 metric tons or 6.8% of the total. For comparison Spain, a 'developed country' with 'high income', imported a total of 5,980,657 metric tons of grain from Ukraine which is a whooping 19.4% of the total.

The 116 million people in 'developing', 'low-income' Ethiopia received a total of 282,760 metric tons while the 17.8 million people in the 'developed', 'high income' Netherlands bought 1,920,649 metric tons of mostly corn feed for pigs.

Most exports of Ukrainian grain only go to countries 'where millions are going hungry' if one adds chicken, pigs and cattle in medium-rich to rich countries to the count.

During the next season Ukraine will have much less grain to export while other big producers, including Russia and Brazil, have increased their output. There will thus be no shortage of grains in the world markets

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ap-obfuscates-the-real-grain-deal-numbers-.html