Ukraine SitRep: Bakhmut - Prigozhin - Counteroffensive

 

moon of alabama

Some 10% of Bakhmut/Aryomovsk, with two distinct areas, are still in Ukrainian hands.

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The northern area consists of single dwellings amongst gardens and trees. The southern area is full of high-rises with little green in between.

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Yesterday the head of the Wagner mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video. Standing in front of a number of dead corpses he publicly attacked the Russian minister of defense over an alleged lack of ammunition. He claimed that it had caused those casualties. A day before those troops had tried to further penetrate the upper area and got caught in an ambush. Bad for them but not a cause of serious concern.

'Western' media like to see such Prigozhin tirades as a sign of infighting within the Russian military apparatus. I have long stopped to listen to Prigozhin. Militarily the Wagner troops are just a part of the Russian army and under its command. Prigozhin's concern is marketing for his Wagner enterprise and for the large share he receives from the monthly bill his company sends to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Politically there is no roll for him.

That his claims of lack of ammunition had been just a show was proven some 12 hours after he published his video.

Here are drone shots of the Bakhmut high-rises still in Ukrainian hands after the received a visit by incendiary missiles.

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The same view in infrared. The white spots are burning hot.

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Video of the attack can be seen here and here.

So there is your lack of ammunition. Anything that was outside of the high-rises, trucks, soldiers and supplies, was likely destroyed.

Prigozhin troops have been in the fight for quite some time. They need some rest and will soon move out. The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov admonished Prigozhin for his public stunt. If needed his troops will replace the Wagners and finish the Bakhmut fight. Meanwhile the attention will move to a different front.

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The long announced Ukrainian counter-offensive will probably start on Victory Day, May 9. One axis of the attack will be in the Zaporizhia region towards south in an attempt to reach the sea. But the first important aim is likely the retaking of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant near the city of Enerhodar south of the Dnieper basin. Its economic importance to Ukraine is immense as it can easily sell the electricity the six reactors generate to Europe. There is little other income the Ukraine still has.

The Russian military has asked civilians in 17 towns within 50 kilometer (30 miles) of the current frontline to evacuate the area. The Russian army has also prepared defense lines and moved reserves to the south of the region.

The success of the Ukrainians will depend on the gadgets its 'western' supporters have supplied it with. We may see some unexpected weapons or longer range missiles in the field. There is likely also some new bridging equipment that will help with crossing the Dnieper in the Kherson region for a secondary axis. A third axis, or perhaps a diversion, in the northeast towards Soledar is also possible.

The first days of the new fight will be confusing with lots of false claims and propaganda from both sides. We will all have to sit back and wait until the fog of war rises enough to paint a picture of the new situation.

Posted by b on May 6, 2023 at 16:38 UTC | Permalink

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