Ukraine War - The Upcoming Duel Of Speeches

 

moon of  alabama

Next week will see a speech duel between President Putin and President Biden.

On February 21 the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will hold his State of the Nation Address in the Federal Assembly:

The president delivered his previous address to the country’s parliament in April 2021. Putin explained that there had been no State of the Nation Address in 2022 because the situation was unfolding very quickly and it was difficult "to fix the results at a specific point, as well as specific plans for the near future." However, crucial messages were included in other presidential speeches.

Before the speech Putin will have a talk with leaders of the opposition parties. Another meeting with the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, is also planned. Russian analysts expect that some serious announcements will be made.

The speech will come exactly one year after the speech that announced the recognition of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics as independent states.

While Putin will be speaking U.S. president Joe Biden will be in Poland where he will also hold a major speech:

President Joe Biden will visit Poland this month to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, returning to the region as the war enters a volatile new phase without a clear path to peace.

The president is planning to visit Poland from February 20-22. The White House said he would meet Polish President Andrzej Duda and other leaders from the region. He’ll deliver remarks ahead of the official anniversary on February 24.

“He wants to talk about the importance of the international community’s resolve and unity in supporting Ukraine for now going on a year,” said John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council.
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Biden’s aides have been planning for several weeks how they will mark the anniversary of the invasion, including potentially a major address. They hope to emphasize the resilience of the Ukrainian people while stressing the importance of unity in the uncertain months ahead.

There are concerns that Poland might want to intervene in the war in Ukraine by, for example, occupying its western oblast. Will Biden give his okay for that? A significant number of former Polish soldiers are already fighting in Ukraine as 'mercenaries'. At the end of last year Poland announced that would recall up to 200,000 reservists for training:

The draft regulation presented by the Ministry of Defense states that the proposed figures are a maximum limit that cannot be exceeded, and do not guarantee that the proposed plans will be carried out.

The Biden visit comes at a time when there is serious concern about the length of the war and the sustainment of 'western' support:

Despite promises to back Ukraine “as long as it takes,” Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America’s allies represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.
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Underlining the importance of the moment for the administration, Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas are heading to a major security summit in Germany this week and President Biden is traveling to Poland next week for a speech and meetings on the first anniversary.
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The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to the country one week ahead of those officials, where he briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming months and emphasized the urgency of the moment.

At the same time, Biden and his aides are eager to avoid any sign of defection or weakening resolve by Western allies ahead of the Feb. 24 anniversary, hoping to signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is not waning.

NATO is running of out ammunition and will not be able to support the war much longer:

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Ukrainian forces are using significantly more ammunition than the alliance’s members can produce, putting a strain on Western stockpiles.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels.

“The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,” he added.

This of course to Russia's advantage. It can delay the end of the war as long as it wants. At some point the 'West' will run out of ammunition and money for the war and will have to sue for peace.

Posted by b on February 14, 2023 at 16:53 UTC | Permalink

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