Western Officials Believe Russia Will ‘Gain the Upper Hand’ in Ukraine

 

by Kyle Anzalone | Jan 30, 2023

American and European officials now assess that time is on Russia’s side, according to the Wall Street Journal. Washington and its Western allies transferred billions in weapons to Kiev under the mistaken belief it would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate.

“Officials in some capitals now fear the Kremlin…could gain the upper hand in any lengthy war of attrition,” the outlet reported on Sunday. Adding, there is “a worry in some Western capitals that time might be on Russia’s side.”

The Journal spoke with Western officials who believed the massive military aid packages that members of the NATO alliance provided Kiev would break the Kremlin’s resolve. However, Moscow has weathered Western economic sanctions and a fall offensive by Ukrainian forces. Moreover, Russian soldiers are now on the offensive.

In response to this bleak assessment of the Western war effort, many officials are advocating for an increase in arms transfers of more advanced weapons. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis argued continuing the military aid to Kiev ensures more Russians will die on the Ukrainian battlefield.  “The longer we give them, the more people…they can throw at the Ukrainians,” he said.

The Journal also notes some Western leaders are skeptical about sending more aid to Ukraine because it could escalate into a war between NATO and Russia. Others who voiced opposition to more aid argued it was unlikely to change the outcome of the war.

Putin has expressed for decades that Ukraine is a core security concern for Russia and NATO support for Kiev crossed Moscow’s red line. In 2008, then State Department official – now CIA Director – William Burns wrote a memo to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that  “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin).”

Even with Burns in his cabinet, Joe Biden made Ukraine a “de facto” member of the NATO alliance by September 2021, according to analyst Ted Galen Carpenter. Putin would begin his military buildup that preempted the Russian invasion of Ukraine weeks later.

About Kyle Anzalone

Kyle Anzalone is news editor of the Libertarian Institute, opinion editor of Antiwar.com and co-host of Conflicts of Interest with Will Porter and Connor Freeman.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/western-officials-believe-russia-will-gain-the-upper-hand-in-ukraine/