The 'Frozen Ground Theory' And Other Ukraine War Nonsense

 

moon  of  alabama

Since October 30 2021 first U.S. and then other 'western' media have been filled with predictions of a Russian war against the Ukraine.

Today David Ignatius, the CIA's spokesperson resident at the Washington Post, makes another dire claim:

The world will be watching in horror if Russia invades Ukraine this week — but just watching. Ukraine will fight alone, as Russian tanks roll across the flat, frozen terrain; precision bombs destroy key targets near Kyiv and other cities; and the country becomes a killing field unlike anything Europe has seen since 1945.
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U.S. military officials say Putin has sent orders to his commanders to prepare for possible battle by the middle of this week, when the ground in central Ukraine will have frozen more than a foot deep, allowing rapid tank advance.

I found that 'frozen terrain' bullshit annoying enough to look up the weather forecast for Donetzk.

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The day temperatures this week will be consistently above zero degree centigrade. Some mild night frost might freeze over the grass but little below that. It has been the same last week in Donetzk as well as in Kiev, Moscow and Minsk. There is certainly no frozen ground anywhere between those cities.

Alexander Marquardt, currently in the Ukraine on behalf of CNN, confirms that observation:

Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtA 12:14 UTC · Feb 14, 2022

I’m not taking measurements but if you’re into the frozen ground theory, it’s been mostly above freezing for the week I’ve been in central and eastern Ukraine and all the mud I’ve stepped in is squishy.

Ignatius, and the U.S. military officials he claims to have spoken to, are bullshitting and deceiving the public.

They also lack an understanding of geography and history. Their 'frozen ground theory' is based on reading about the famous Pripyat Marshes (also written Pripet or Pinsk) that are hard to cross with tanks unless the ground is deeply frozen:

Known as Pripjet-Sümpfe by the Germans, the wetlands were dreaded by the Wehrmacht troops. During the German invasion of the Soviet Union, the Third Reich armies skirted the wetlands, passing through the north or south of it. However, after the debacle of the Eastern Front in 1944, many retreating units such as the 7th, 35th, 134th and 292nd Infantry Divisions had to cut across the marshy areas. They often needed to build tracks with logs over which they could pull light loads in horse-drawn vehicles.

The Pripyat Marshes do hinder warfare unless the ground is deeply frozen. But they are in southern Belarus and north-west Ukraine.

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The grounds in south-east Ukraine, where a war would most likely play out, are much firmer. They can be crossed by tanks at any time without much problems.

Nonsense is also what Melinda Haring, the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, is producing. Three days ago she predicted a dire weekend:

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Well the weekend has come and is gone. Power and heat in Kiev are on and not one of her predicted incidents has happened. Haring's Twitter profile says that she is:

Trying to nudge history in the right direction.

Nudge, nudge, nudge ... one lie after the other.

Haring has coauthored the Atlantic Council's script, Biden and Ukraine: A strategy for the new administration, which proposed an aggressive anti-Russian plan which the U.S. is now playing along. It was paid for by a Ukrainian oligarch:

Finally, think tanks were contacted more than 1,100 times by Ukraine’s agents, and more than half of these were directed at one in particular: the Atlantic Council. This extraordinary outreach included multiple meetings with Atlantic Council scholars, like ex-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who has advocated for a more militarized approach to Russia amid the Ukraine crisis. Herbst recently told NPR that President Joe Biden should “send more weapons to Ukraine now. By all means, get additional U.S. and NATO forces up along Russia’s border.” Herbst was also at the center of an Atlantic Council kerfuffle last March, when he and 21 other Atlantic Council staff signed a letter opposing the work of two Atlantic Council colleagues who suggested a restraint-based approach to dealing with Russia.

The Atlantic Council has also launched “UkraineAlert” which publishes daily pieces on deterring Russia. A recent article, “Survey: Western public backs stronger support for Ukraine against Russia,” notes the survey in question was commissioned by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy, which Pinchuk founded; however, the article does not mention that the foundation is a large contributor to the Atlantic Council, donating $250,000-499,000 a year, or that Pinchuk himself — the second wealthiest man in Ukraine — sits on the international advisory board of the Atlantic Council.

Russia will not attack the Ukraine. If the Ukraine attacks the rebellious Donbas region Russia will likely wait until Ukrainian 'progress' is visible for all to see to then let the Russian military take care of the aggressors by means of artillery and other stand-off weapons.

Today the Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his foreign and defense ministers who reported on recent 'western' responses to Russia's security demands:

The Eurasianist ☦️@Russ_Warrior - 12:42 UTC · Feb 14, 2022

Breaking! President #Putin asked #Lavrov to provide the list of #Russia's responses, developed by the Foreign Ministry, to #US/#NATO rejection of Russian security proposals.

#Shoigu will then deliver the list of options developed by the Ministry of Defense.

Grumbling will be heard from the various 'western' military headquarters when Russia reveals and implements the 'military-technical measures' it had promised should the 'western' responses turn out to be insufficient as it now seems to be the case.

Except for more bullshit from clowns like Harding and Ignatius there will likely be nothing that the 'west' has to respond to those.

Posted by b on February 14, 2022 at 14:16 UTC | Permalink

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