Biden’s “Review” of US Arms Sales to Saudia & UAE is a Hoax

 02.02.2021 Author: Salman Rafi Sheikh

Column: Politics

Region: Middle East

While the Biden administration has decided to “review” the sale of arms and F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabi and the UAE, the proposed “review” is hardly an indication of a change in US policy towards its traditional allies in the Gulf. A change in US policy towards the Gulf cannot happen merely on the basis of halting arms sales; it can happen only when core US interests in the region change, which include, beside a whole range of other issues, a full normalization with Iran and a resolution of the Palestinian issues to the advantage of the people of Palestine. As it stands, the arrival of Joe Biden has not automatically led to any of these, nor does the new administration has a magic formula to correct the conflict-prone geo-political landscape of the Middle East overnight, killing the essential reasons for these states to acquire sophisticated weapon systems. It is, therefore, politically wrong to read the on-going “review” as a prologue to a major strategic shift that the new US administration is going to bring about.

There is no denying that the Joe Biden administration is interested in reviving the Iran-nuke deal. By halting the sales, the Biden administration appears to be targeting more than two countries in the Gulf. Whereas the halt sends a message to Iran, it also speaks to the UAE and Saudi Arabi about the importance of aligning their Iran policy with that of the US, even if temporarily, to allow for the revival of the deal. The Biden administration is only trying to demonstrate its “seriousness” to Iran and reset the Trump era legacy of tensions. The “review” is, therefore, more about Iran than about the UAE and Saudia.

The UAE, as its ambassador to the US said, was already anticipating this. They have not criticized the new administration because, as the US state department quickly confirmed, the review is no more than “a routine administrative action typical to most any transition, and demonstrates the administration’s commitment to transparency and good governance, as well as ensuring U.S. arms sales meet our strategic objectives of building stronger, interoperable, and more capable security partners.”

“Routine administration action”, as it stands, is fundamentally different from an up-coming strategic shift; for, US-Gulf security ties remain unchanged. In fact, the Biden administration has already re-affirmed their commitment to the Saudis. Following the recent attack in Riyadh, the US State Department was quick to confirm that ,“As we work to de-escalate tensions in the region through principled diplomacy, including by bringing an end to the war in Yemen, we will also help our partner Saudi Arabia defend against attacks on its territory and hold those who attempt to undermine stability to account.”

The new US Secretary of State also, within few hours of the announcement of the “review”, said that the US was not changing its stance about The Abraham Accords. As it stands, the agreement to sale F-35 was a part of the deal that ultimately produced The Accords in the first place.

To quote Blinken, “We’re also trying to make sure that we have a full understanding of any commitments that may have been made in securing those [The Abraham Accord] agreements, and that’s something we’re – we’re looking at right now. Generally speaking when it comes to arms sales, it is typical at the start of an administration to review any – any pending sales, to make sure that what is being considered is something that advances our strategic objectives and advances our foreign policy. So that’s – that’s what we’re doing at this moment.”

The Pentagon also confirmed that the move was “temporary” and the new Pentagon chief, who has a long history of good relations with the Gulf allies, told the Senate Armed Services Committee, that the Ministry of Defense will maintain talks with its regional partners in the Middle East to determine the capabilities required to deter Iran and support regional stability.

As it stands, no US official has said anything about declaring Saudi a ‘pariah.’ The Biden administration is not looking to fulfill its election-campaign promises. While it has shrouded this “review” in technical terms, it still is political in as much as it wants to use this deal to force Saudia and the UAE into a passive position vis-à-vis the revival of JCPOA.

This, however, will not be a walk in the park. For one thing, the UAE and Saudia remain crucial US partners in the Middle East. As it stands, US military foothold in the Middle East largely depends on its continued and undisturbed relations with the two leading Gulf-Arab states. Both these Gulf states remain indispensable and are far from becoming expendable for any greater US interests.

At the same time, the Saudis have been taking steps to restore their image in the US, particularly among the Democrats, many of whom had come to advocate severing of ties with the Kingdom following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi inside Saudi consulate in Turkey. The Saudis, as several reports in the mainstream US media show, have re-established ties with powerful and very influential lobbying firms, such as Edelman, that heavily favours Democratic candidates in its political donations. The Saudis are buying their way into the Biden administration and it would not be long before the new administration starts advocating “strong ties” with the Gulf.

The lobbying does work. As it stands, the Joe Biden administration is already sounding different from the Biden candidate. Instead of deciding to stop supporting the Saudi war in Yemen, the Biden administration officials have now confirmed they will be imposing fresh sanctions on the Houthis with a view to helping the Yemeni authorities to liberate strategically important territories and re-establish their control.

There is as such no gainsaying that no fundamental shift has taken place or is going to take place between the US and its allies in the Gulf.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

https://journal-neo.org/2021/02/02/biden-s-review-of-us-arms-sales-to-saudia-uae-is-a-hoax/