Erdogan Is Again Under Pressure And Therefore Likely To Escalate

 

moon of alabama

Over the last years the Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has managed to alienate so many of his countries international partners that it is hard to keep count. He at times did so on purpose to distract his voters from a sinking economy and other local calamities. But there are signs that he has now exceeded the patience of the adversaries he has created. He is now finally receiving the rebukes he has seemed to be seeking.

While Russia has emphasized friendly relations with Turkey, it is in conflict with it in Syria, Libya and most recently in the war over Nagorny-Karabakh.

Russia at times has a not-so-subtle way to communicate that its patience has run out. Last Thursday Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean fired missiles on a oil smuggling center near Jarablus, Syria:

More than 15 militants from the Turkish-controlled Syrian armed opposition were killed and injured in a missile strike by an unknown military aircraft on a smuggling market for oil products in the city of Jerablus, bordering Turkey, in northern Syria, local sources reported.

It is noted that the rockets were also fired at two fuel tankers, which were moving along the highway near the village of Kus in the direction of the market. Eyewitnesses reported that at the time of the strikes, several powerful explosions occurred in the border area.

The oil was smuggled from eastern Syria and was on its way to Turkey.

Today a Russian air attack on a graduation ceremony of Turkish financed 'Syrian rebels' killed or wounded more than 200 of them.

bigger
bigger

Erdogan's fanboys took note:

Ömer Özkizilcik @OmerOzkizilcik - 9:31 UTC · Oct 26, 2020

Russia has attacked the HQ of Faylaq al-Sham, Turkey's favorite armed group in Idlib, and the leading faction of the NLF of the SNA.
Faylaq al-Sham is also present in the Astana process and the constitutional committee.
Claims that up to 50 Faylaq members died in the attack.

After the recent airstrike on the Jarablus oil refinery, this strike is just another demonstration of the growing rift between Russia and Turkey.
It seems that many in Moscow are angry about the humiliation of the Russian defense industry by Turkey.

Well, Russia has a real defense industry while the Turkish weapon 'producers' are just assembly lines for parts bought from abroad:

301 @301_AD - 10:19 UTC · Oct 26, 2020

The "indigenous" Turkish drone which Turks boast about day and night as the flagship of their military industry is a not so indigenous after all. It's assembled by top notch western components.

bigger

Turkey has successfully used the drones to destroy old Russian made air defenses in Nagorny-Karabakh. But as Canada and Austria have now stopped to supply the necessary components the availability of such drones will soon diminish.

The U.S.also increased the pressure on Turkish proxy forces in Syria:

The U.S. Army said Thursday it carried out a drone strike against Al-Qaeda leaders in northwestern Syria near the Turkish border, killing 17 jihadists, according to a war monitor.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said five civilians were also among those killed.

"U.S. Forces conducted a strike against a group of Al-Qaeda in Syria (AQ-S) senior leaders meeting near Idlib, Syria," said Maj. Beth Riordan, the spokeswoman for United States Central Command (CENTCOM).

It is now likely that Turkey will order its 'Syrian rebel' mercenaries to escalate the war in Idleb. Russia and Syria have been waiting for this and are well prepared.

Turkish relations with Greece have always been hostile but Turkey currently does its best to increase them:

Greece said Monday that Turkey plans to carry out a maritime military exercise on Oct. 28, a Greek national holiday, just hours after NATO’s secretary general said both Greece and Turkey had called off wargames on each other’s national holidays.

Erdogan has also been busy to add other EU countries to the list of Turkey's enemies:

France has recalled its ambassador to Turkey after the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan questioned the mental health of French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.

Erdoğan questioned Macron's mental condition while criticising the French President's attitude toward Islam and Muslims.

His remarks at a local party congress were an apparent response to statements Macron made earlier this month about problems created by radical Muslims in France who practice what the French leader termed "Islamist separatism".

Macron's remarks had come after a Chechen terrorist with connections to militants in the Turkish occupied Idleb had beheaded a French teacher in Paris. Erdogan's remarks were followed by anti-French protests in Turkish occupied areas of Syria during which flags of the Islamic State were raised.

Despite Russian, French and U.S. attempts to set up a ceasefire in Nagarno-Karabakh Turkey is pressing Azerbaijan to continue the war:

[I]n the last year, Turkey has violated Israeli, Libyan, Iraqi, Syrian, and Greek sovereignty. The international community has condemned Turkey’s territorial encroachments on numerous occasions. A similar scenario is playing out in Nagorno-Karabakh today.

On October 21, Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay pledged to provide full military support for Azerbaijan if necessary. Oktay has also denounced international efforts to quell the conflict’s escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The OSCE Minsk Group, comprised of the United States, France, and Russia, formed to help mediate the conflict. Turkish officials, however, claim this group is actively supporting Armenia. In a rebuke of Turkey, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement highlighting Ankara’s malign involvement in the conflict. He noted Turkish-backed fighters are “providing resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk and firepower” that is only fleshing out the fighting.

A new Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire, negotiated on Friday in Washington DC, was immediately breached by new attacks from Azerbaijani forces.

In Libya a new ceasefire agreement between the Turkish supported Muslim Brotherhood forces who hold the western part of the country and the eastern forces of General Hafter, supported by the UAE and Russia, stipulates that all foreign forces will have to leave the country within three months. The UN and every involved country but one welcomed the deal:

But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, which backs the Tripoli government with military support, questioned the viability of the ceasefire.

"Today's ceasefire agreement was actually not made at the highest level, it was at a lower level. Time will tell whether it will last," Erdogan said. "So it seems to me that it lacks credibility."

Turkey had attempted to gain control of the eastern oil fields of Libya but failed to do so after Russia countered it. Oil production in Libya has been restarted without any of the profits flowing to Turkey. It will now have to leave the new bases it created or re-escalate that war.

Pissing off the U.S., the EU and Russia while waging wars against several countries has significant economic costs:

Since reaching a peak of $951 billion in 2013, Turkey’s gross domestic product has reversed its growth trend, falling to $754 billion in 2019 in nominal terms—a drop of $200 billion, nearly the size of the GDP of Greece, in six years. The lackluster performance of the economy has had a political impact on the AKP’s popularity at home. According to the pollster Metropoll, support for the AKP had fallen to 31 percent in August 2020—a significant drop from the 43 percent of votes the party received in the 2018 parliamentary elections.
...
A foreign policy that gives priority to combative rhetoric, hard power, and maligning the West can be politically useful in the short term, but remains incompatible with the long-term requirement of stabilizing the economy. And yet it is the country’s economic performance that will ultimately determine the fate of the next national political contest when the time comes.

A year ago 5.75 Turkish Lira were the equivalent of 1 U.S. dollar. Today one needs more than 8 Turkish Lira to buy a dollar.

bigger

Turkish companies have taken up lots of loans in foreign currencies. They will have to pay the loans back with 40% more Lira than they had planned to do. Many of them will not survive the drain.

Saudi Arabia and its allies have launched a boycott of Turkish products. Turkish made pots and pans and Turkish vegetables have been removed from Saudi supermarkets.

Over the years Turkey had managed to play off the U.S. against Russia and Russia against the EU. But now its relations with all of those parties deteriorate at the very same time. This while its economy has serious problems.

To better his position Erdogan could retreat from some of the many conflicts he created. But given his previous behavior under pressure he is more likely to go into the opposite direction.  I expect him to soon escalate on one or more fronts with Syria being the most likely one.

Over the last year a lot of Turkish equipment and many Turkish soldiers have been moved to Idelb. But would they be able to withstand an onslaught of Russian air and missile attacks? Would Russia launch those provocative strikes on Turkish proxies forces if it thought so?

Turkey has in my view overextended itself. It will have to retreat on several of its current fronts and concentrate on its economy. It is otherwise likely to suffer a significant military defeat while its economy will further deteriorate.  It would be the end of Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman dreams.

Posted by b on October 26, 2020 at 16:03 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/10/erdogan-is-again-under-pressure-and-therefore-likely-to-escalate.html#more