Iran’s Uranium Stockpile Grows, But Still Not a Weapons Risk
Iran first exceeded the cap in June of 2019
Jason Ditz
The latest IAEA report on Iran noted that the uranium stockpile was at 1,500 kg, which is roughly five times the “cap” under the P5+1 nuclear deal. Iran has been deliberately flouting the cap in a reversible way to try to encourage negotiation on sanctions relief, which was promised but never given to them.
While this is being hyped today because of the report, it’s not really new. Iran started exceeding the cap way back in June of 2019. It’s been slowly increasing since then, for over half a year.
The panic that media tend to manufacture around anything Iran-themed, however, continues from there, with disingenuous claims that the 1,500 kg of low-enriched uranium is possibly enough to make a weapon.
This possibility is based on a series of rough calculations on if Iran perfectly took its low-enriched uranium, converted it all to weapons-grade uranium through a process they’ve never attempted, then successfully weaponized and miniaturized that into something deliverable.
All of this is very theoretical, and even then risks of weaponization are in practice zero, because Iran would not be a nuclear power from making and not testing one device. Even if they did have enough uranium for one device, as soon as they detonate it for a test, they have used their entire stockpile.
While this is being hyped today because of the report, it’s not really new. Iran started exceeding the cap way back in June of 2019. It’s been slowly increasing since then, for over half a year.
The panic that media tend to manufacture around anything Iran-themed, however, continues from there, with disingenuous claims that the 1,500 kg of low-enriched uranium is possibly enough to make a weapon.
This possibility is based on a series of rough calculations on if Iran perfectly took its low-enriched uranium, converted it all to weapons-grade uranium through a process they’ve never attempted, then successfully weaponized and miniaturized that into something deliverable.
All of this is very theoretical, and even then risks of weaponization are in practice zero, because Iran would not be a nuclear power from making and not testing one device. Even if they did have enough uranium for one device, as soon as they detonate it for a test, they have used their entire stockpile.
posted by Satish Sharma at
19:43
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