SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Which Hong Kong Protest Size Estimate is Right?

moon of alabama

The New York Times further promotes the protests in Hong Kong by quoting an extravagant crowd size estimate of yesterday's march.

Hong Kong Protesters Defy Police Ban in Show of Strength After Tumult

A sea of Hong Kong protesters marched through the dense city center in the pouring rain on Sunday, defying a police ban, in a vivid display of the movement’s continuing strength after more than two months of demonstrations, days of ugly violence and increasingly vehement warnings from the Chinese government.People began assembling in the early afternoon in Victoria Park, the starting point of huge peaceful marches in June that were joined by hundreds of thousands of protesters.
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By midafternoon, the park had filled with tens of thousands of people, and the demonstrators began to spill into nearby roads.
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Organizers estimated at least 1.7 million people had turned out — nearly one in four of the total population of more than seven million — making it the second-largest march of the movement, after a protest by nearly two million on June 16.
The Hong Kong police released a far lower crowd estimate, saying there were 128,000 protesters in Victoria Park during the peak period.

So what is it? 128,000 or the 13 times bigger 1.7 million? With the mood set in the first paragraphs the Times is clearly promoting the larger estimate.

But that estimate is definitely false. (As was my own early estimate of 15-20,000 based on early pictures of the event.) It is impossible that 1.7 million people took part in the gathering and march. There is no way that the 1.7 million people would physically fit in or near the protest venue.

This is well known. On Saturday the Wall Street Journal (quoted here) wrote:

The police on Thursday approved a Sunday protest at Victoria Park. But they denied a permit for a 2.3-mile march to Chater Road in Hong Kong’s Central district.
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The problem is that Victoria Park can accommodate only 100,000 or so people, according to police estimates.

Victoria Park has two places where people crowds can assemble.

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The one below the red marker is the field in question. It is 80 x 360 meter, 28.800 square meter. At a high density of 4 people per square meter the field can hold a maximum of 115.000 people. On Sunday there was some overflow onto the upper green field but the density was much lower than 4 persons per square meter. It was raining and nearly everyone carried an umbrella. That is not possible in a high density standing or moving crowd.

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Pictures of large crowds tend to deceive. The density often seem higher than it is. The two below made by Prof Keith Still with a 3D crowd visualizer show 2 people per square meter.

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The South China Morning Post posted video (scroll down) of the crowd and the following march and the average density appears to be even lower than 2.