When did Russia’s S-400 become the New Black

Author: Martin Berger

Column: Politics

Region: Russia in the World

The plans for a mass acquisition of Russia’s top of the line anti-aircraft defensive systems S-400 and S-500 that are being made in the East have caused widespread panic in the West. As a matter of fact, the list of Middle Eastern and Asian states standing in line for those systems is miles long.

This may serve as an indicator of the fact that for far too long Washington has been making all sorts of preconditions before allowing states across the globe to buy its weapon systems with a lot of string attached. This system was put in place to assist the US in its quest of re-shaping the global stage in accordance with its own interests. This effectively forced all sorts of international players to start searching for an alternative to those arms that Washington may or may not be willing to sell to them. To make the matters worse, Uncle Sam hasn’t had any of its new toys working the way they should have, in spite of his unprecedented spending rates, that’s why he’s been mostly producing obsolete weapon systems that cannot in all honesty be compared to Russia’s state of the art weapons systems. This was vividly illustrated by the latest failure of Pentagon’s Tomahawk cruise missile barrage that occurred in mid-April, when the White House decided that it was in the mood to fire some in the direction of the Syrian Arab Republic.

It was fortunate that the Guardian was objective enough to report disheartening results of this provocation, stating that during the above mentioned attack on Syria in the space of 45 minutes some 50 million dollars worth of weapons were fired. However, the effectiveness of the strikes was doubtful at best, as Syria took down 71 of a little bit over 100 missiles launched. The missiles used during this attack were among some of the best the US and its allies have in store, including the latest JASSM cruise missile, which was used in combat for the first time.

The low success rate of the barrage resulted in the Pentagon military brass despising the idea of firing any more Tomahawk cruise missiles in the future, as those systems, designed as far back as in the 1980s, cannot be described in today’s day and age as anything but obsolete. Therefore, the US chose to turn its back on upgrading these systems any further, as it’s been reported by the Defense One.

Now reports of unhappy customers complaining about the massively advertised Patriot anti-aircraft systems came pilling in. Thus, experts from the independent Middlebury Institute of International Studies studied the performance this American missile defense system in Saudi Arabia to come to the conclusion that the infamous MIM-104 that Washington advertises to all of its allies as the ultimate weapon are of little assistance to the defending side. The study was released under the self-explanatory title: Patriot Missiles Are Made in America and Fail Everywhere. Riyadh seems to have a hard time forgetting how the Patriot missiles that were supposed to intercept impoverished rockets fired by the Houthis, hit Saudi residential areas instead.

The announcement that Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, John Rood made last March about American anti-aircraft missile defense system not being designated for a possible all-out confrontation with Russia and China, left traditional customers of Washington in a state of shock. It turns out that the those missile systems that are being sold as a part of a global missile defense system, now that Russia has unveiled its next-gen nuclear capabilities, can be simply shrugged off.

Therefore, virtually nobody was surprised when Saudi Arabia, without going so far as to ask Washington’s opinion, negotiated with Russia about the rapid delivery of its S-400 to Riyadh. Saudi Ambassador to Moscow, Raed bin Khaled Qarmali revealed this fact last May, adding that the deal was struck a year ago, during the visit of King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to Moscow.

Further still, Qatar carries on its attempts to strike a similar deal, as Qatari elites are all about those Russian S-400 Triumph systems. However, Saudi Arabia made a voiced a loud protest against this deal, threatening Doha to destroy all the systems delivered to Qatar with the use military force. It came to the point of King Salman writing an letter to the French president, urging the latter to apply pressure Doha in order for it to break the deal. There’s little doubt that Riyadh’s position on disrupting the deal was coordinated with the US, as Washington does not want to lose one of the most profitable arms markets in the world, namely the Persian Gulf, overnight.

However, Arabian monarchies are hardly the ones who want to see their airspace locked for good for undesirable intruders, as on top of Iraq, Algeria and a number of other countries in the Middle East and Asia, it turned out that India and Turkey want to buy those systems too.

One of the reasons why New Delhi decided is craving to get as many S-400 as it possible can is its jealousy of China, that has already successfully negotiated the deal with Moscow. And since India perceives Beijing as its primary competitor in the region, it will do virtually anything not to fall behind its neighbor in any domain. And since the first regiment of S-400 arrived to China last April, one can bet his pocket cash that India won’t keep us waiting for long.

The Russian-Indian deal on the S-400 turned out to be an extremely sensitive issue for the United States. It is a given that Washington has been hard at work trying to “persuade India” to walk away from the deal it took a lot of time negotiating to acquire the above mentioned Patriot. According to the Economic Times, the White House can bring this issue up during the Indian-American talks in the “2 + 2″ format, which are being held on July 6 in Washington. The parties are reported to devise a way to go around the sanctions that Washington may introduce against New Delhi (sic). Under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), Washington can impose restrictive measures against third countries and companies that are cooperating with the defense and intelligence bodies of the Russian Federation. However, in India’s case, no one really knows who needs whom more. Let’s recall that the United States tried to introduce sanctions against New Delhi once, but then for year and years on end American products failed to reach the Indian market. And although it took a lot of time, Washington eventually recognized that the Indian market is paramount importance for America. That is why the Trump administration opposed the idea of new sanctions against India as hard as it might, while still demanding the latter to reduce its military dependence on Russia.

However, the most heated diplomatic battle has been going between Turkey and the US for quite some time over the same Russian anti-aircraft systems, since Turkey announced its intention to get 2.5 billion dollars worth of S-400. It’s been announced that first shipments of those systems are scheduled for next July. Earlier, the Pentagon threatened Turkey with sanctions, should the deal actually go through. Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force, International Affairs Heidi Grant would even announce that Turkey would be cut off from NATO’s common defense network. On June 18, the US Senate adopted the defense budget draft for 2019, which stipulates that Ankara’s participation in the production of the fifth-generation F-35 fighter is going to be suspended due to its plans to purchase Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems. According to the Senate, no later than 60 days after the budget enters into force, the head of the Pentagon, in consultation with the US Secretary of State, should submit a report on the state of relations between the United States and Turkey to the relevant congressional committees, the content of which will be determined by Turkey’s determination to still get (or not get) the defense system everybody wants. Washington went as far as to transform the issue in the bargaining cheap during the recent round of Syrian peace talks negotiations, demanding Ankara to guarantees that these missile systems would not be used against NATO members, and Turkey actually gave them.

However, despite a massive opposition in the Congress, the Pentagon has already shipped he first two F-35 to its Turkish partners. At the same time Erdogan has non intention of turning his back on Russia. Now Ankara gets the best of the two world, which rendered a lot of seasoned political figures in the US speechless, as it has not just acquired both F-35 and S-400 by playing global centers of power against each other, in spite of them balancing on the verge of actual confrontation, but it is going to remain a NATO member all of the same. That’s what one could describe as diplomatic efforts.

Martin Berger is a freelance journalist and geopolitical analyst, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”  

https://journal-neo.org/2018/07/06/when-did-russias-s-400-become-the-new-black/