Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse

moon of alabama

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo just visited North Korea to further the agenda President Trump and Chairmen Kim had agreed upon in Singapore. The visit did not go well:

The specifics of what happened behind closed doors remain unclear. Whether Pompeo somehow annoyed his counterpart, or pressed too hard, or whether the North Koreans are simply reverting to their hot-and-cold tactics, is hard to say. But the regime made sure to have the final word, and it was not pleasant.As he was leaving, Pompeo told reporters the conversations were “productive and in good faith.” Hours later North Korean state media issued a statement that did not mention him by name but called the demands he presented “gangster-like.”

The Trump administration has long set out its goal as CVID, the "Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement" of North Korea nuclear weapons program. After applying "maximum pressure" on North Korea through international sanctions, the U.S. believed that long planned steps North Korea took to start talks with its adversaries were already the total surrender it was hoping for. Somehow the people became convinced that North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons. From a Washington Post story:

Amid increasing scrutiny of North Korea's commitment to giving up its weapons, Pompeo came to Pyongyang in a bid to hammer out the details of a denuclearization plan. While the secretary told reporters that progress was made "on almost all of the central issues” and involved “good-faith negotiations,” North Korea said the U.S. attitude, demanding denuclearization, was “regrettable.”

"North Korea's commitment to giving up its weapons" is presented as a matter of fact in the U.S. media. However, North Korea never made such a commitment. The declarations it agreed to set out denuclearization as an aspiration goal that will be worked on only after the normalization of economic and military relations and after a peace treaty has been agreed on or signed. The record on that is clear.

In April President Moon Jae-in of South Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea met in Panmunjom and signed a common Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula . The declaration had three numbered main points, each with a list of subitems. The first main point covers inner-Korean relations including economic relations, the second point is about the lowering of military tension, the third is about a peace agreement. The second subitem of the third main point sets out a step by step process of disarmament:

South and North Korea agreed to carry out disarmament in a phased manner, as military tension is alleviated and substantial progress is made in military confidence-building.

The third subitem is about a peace treaty that includes the U.S. and China. It is only the fourth subitem of the third mainpoint and the last of the whole declaration that mentions a goal of denuclearization within a bigger context:

South and North Korea confirmed the common goal of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. South and North Korea shared the view that the measures being initiated by North Korea are very meaningful and crucial for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and agreed to carry out their respective roles and responsibilities in this regard. South and North Korea agreed to actively seek the support and cooperation of the international community for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Denuclearization of the north AND south is the last point of a long agenda that will be fulfilled in a "phased manner" or step by step. The whole paper describes a chronologic order in which the set of tasks will be worked on.

In June Kim Jong-un met U.S. President Trump in Singapore. A "freeze for freeze" - the stop of nuclear and missile testing in exchange for a stop of military maneuvers - was agreed upon. A Joint Statement was signed with a list of future tasks in similar chronological order as in the Panmunjeom Declaration (numbering added):

President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to [1] the establishment of new US-DPRK relations and [2] the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed [3a] to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un [3b] reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The program detailed in that paragraph is repeated in an itemized and numbered list:

President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

Denuclearization of the north AND south is again described as an aspirational goal and as the last item of the longer list.

The Panmunjeom Declaration and the Singapore Statement are the only public commitments North Korea agreed to. Both describe numbered steps that are to be taken by both parties one after the other. Denuclearization is the last step.

Now Pompeo came to Pyongyang and asked for details about North Korea's nuclear program and how it plans to abandon it. As far as we know he did not talk about point 1, the "establishment of new US-DPRK relations" which would include the opening of embassies and economic engagement. He did not talk about point 2, "a lasting and stable peace regime" i.e. a peace treaty. He did not talk about 3a, the "security guarantees to the DPRK". 

The only item he talked about was 3b, the last item on the list.

The Trump administration put the cart before the horse and now wonders why that did not work.

After Pompeo left Pyongyang North Korea published a statement that condemns Pompeo for getting the sequence wrong:

[T]he U.S. side came up only with its unilateral and gangster-like demand for denuclearization just calling for CVID, declaration and verification, all of which run counter to the spirit of the Singapore summit meeting and talks.The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula which is essential for defusing tension and preventing a war. It took the position that it would even backtrack on the issue it had agreed on to end the status of war under certain conditions and excuses.
As for the issue of announcing the declaration of the end of war at an early date, it is the first process of defusing tension and establishing a lasting peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and at the same time, it constitutes a first factor in creating trust between the DPRK and the U.S. This issue was also stipulated in Panmunjom Declaration as a historical task to terminate the war status on the Korean peninsula which continues for nearly 70 years. President Trump, too, was more enthusiastic about this issue at the DPRK-U.S. summit talks.

First peace, then denuclearization.

The statement goes on to laud Trump while condemning his minions:

Valuable agreement was reached in such a short time at the Singapore summit talks first ever in the history of the DPRK-U.S. relations. This is attributable to the fact that President Trump himself said he would move towards resolving the DPRK-U.S. relations and the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a new way.If both sides at the working level reneged on the new way agreed at the summit and returned to the old way, the epoch-making Singapore summit would be meaningless ...
...
We still cherish our good faith in President Trump.
The U.S. should make a serious consideration of whether the toleration of the headwind against the wills of the two top leaders would meet the aspirations and expectations of the world people as well as the interests of its country.

This is a quite interesting play. North Korea tells Trump that his staff is sabotaging the "valuable agreement" he made.

There is little doubt that this is the case. As chinahand aka Peter Lee explains (recommended video), "sabotaging Korean peace is as American as apple pie."

Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton has a long history of destroying talks with North Korea. It was likely John Bolton who organized the recent intelligence leaks about North Korea's continuing work on its missile programs. In March, before joining the Trump administration, Bolton went on Foxnews and talked about the already agreed upon Trump-Kim summit. He opined (@4:10m) that the purpose of the meeting was, in his view, to ..

".. foreshorten the amount of time that we’re going to waste in negotiations that will never produce the result we want, which is Kim giving up his nuclear program.”

If such hawk engagement was the purpose of the Trump-Kim meeting then the end point is nearly reached. Trump could now twitter the lie that Kim "betrayed" him and "failed to fulfill his commitment", the one he never made. The U.S. establishment, the Korea specialists and the mainstream media all argued against these talks. They want full denuclearization of North Korea without giving it much - if anything - in return. They would applaud Trump if he stops the talks and again ramps up tensions.

But Trump might really want to get that Nobel Peace Prize. He will not get one for nuking Pyongyang. He will (first) have to make peace. He will have to order Pompeo to go back to Pyongyang and to talk about the opening embassies and the peace process before raising the issue of 'denuclearization'. He will have to tell Bolton to stop his games.

Trump may also have a another aim in mind. China is the main competitor of the United States, in Asia as well as globally. North Korea is China's T/trump card, a proxy state that can be used to dial up tensions and to keep the U.S. busy whenever it wants. If Trump really wants to go after China, neutralizing North Korea (and Russia?) first is a desirable step.

It is not discernible what Trump really wants. It might well be that he has not made up his mind, or that he changes his position as the days go by.

Posted by b on July 8, 2018 at 02:02 PM | Permalink

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