Syria - The East-Ghouta-Afrin Exchange Is Complete - Where Will The SAA Go Next?

moon  of  alabama

After the Syrian army had taken all rural parts of east-Ghouta three pockets of densely upbuild areas were left in terrorist hands. Negotiations had started about transfer of the armed men to Idleb governorate in the north. Some 100,000 people moved from the besieged areas to the Syrian government side. Surrounded by widely superior forces, devoid of human shields and without any chance of relief the terrorist groups are now giving up one by one.

Source: Maxim Mansour/ Syria Digital Map - bigger

First to surrender were Ahrar al-Sham fighters who held the Harasta suburb. 1,500 of them and their families, in total 4,500 people were transferred to Idleb by government buses. They had to give up all heavy weapons and were only allowed to carry one hand-weapons and no ammunition.

Next to give up were Faylaq al-Rahman who held the southern pocket. While the leadership of the group was negotiating with the government side some of the group fired barrages of missiles into Damascus city and killed dozens of people. Shortly thereafter two dozen of foreigners who had been fighting with Faylaq al-Rahman turned up dead. Having eliminated those irreconcilable elements Faylaq al-Rahman burned its headquarter and agreed to be transferred. The men and their families are now being evacuated to Afrin, a formerly Kurdish area in the north-west which Turkish supported gangs recently captured. The total of this transfer were some 7,000 people.

The last area in to be taken in east-Ghouta is Douma. It is held by Jaish al-Islam, a group of Wahhabi Islamists with intense support from Saudi Arabia. But Jaish al Islam will not want to go to Idleb. They have long fought with other Islamists and especially with HTS, aka Jabhat al-Nusra, which now rules in most of Idleb. Jaish al-Islam still tries to negotiate some autonomy for Douma but the Syrian government will not have any of that. It can not and will not allow a pocket of 'autonomous' Saudi financed Jihadis a few miles from the capital. The group will have to give up completely or agree to be transferred elsewhere. The only alternative is imminent death by Syrian artillery and bombardment. News today is that an agreement has been found but details are not yet available.

The Syrian Arab Army has cleaned the east-Ghouta pocket in a less than a month. This was only possible because Turkey had a great incentive to keep other areas, especially in Idleb, reasonably quiet. To allow Turkey to take the Afrin canton from unruly Kurdish forces was thus in exchange for east-Ghouta.

The U.S. had plans to attack Syria during the east-Ghouta operation. The Russian military sent intense warnings that it would retaliate against U.S. ships and other platforms if those would fire cruise missiles against Syria. The warnings were successful in deterring the Pentagon but not the White House hawks:

According to two National Security Council officials, Mattis has ignored McMaster’s requests for military options that would have allowed the U.S. to strike Eastern Gouta, in Syria, ...

With the east-Ghouta pocket removed the Syrian army can move towards the next target. 

There is one pocket left near the capital that is still held by terrorists. Yarmouk, originally an improvised camp for Palestinian refugees but now part of Damascus city, is held by an Islamic State aligned group and by some Palestinian Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood followers who also fight the government. These groups often fight each other. Every once in a while their fighting spills over and affects the wider city. The Syrian government gave Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood organization, a chance to clean up the area but Hamas failed to do so. It should not take long for the Syrian forces to eliminate both of the threats.

There have also been signs that the southern area around Daraa, near the Jordanian border, will be the place of the next large operation. Negotiations with some 'rebel' groups in Daraa and with the Jordanian government are ongoing. But while Jordan would probably like the war on Syria to end, its Saudi, Israeli and U.S. allies, who's money it needs to survive, may not agree to such plans and prepare for a new fight.

During the recent visit by the Saudi clown prince in Washington the Saudis bought 6,600 TOW anti tank missiles. Their purchase is obviously not for defense against Yemeni tank divisions storming towards Riyadh. In 2013 the Saudis bought 15,600 TOWs which the CIA then distributed to its Takfiris in Syria. The new Saudi purchase will have a similar purpose. Will those TOWs be distributed to 'rebels' in Daraa or to the new Arab 'rebel' army the U.S. forces in east-Syria are building out of remnants of ISIS?

Posted by b on March 25, 2018 at 11:26 AM | Permalink

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/03/syria-the-east-ghouta-afrin-exchange-is-complete-where-will-the-saa-go-next.html