Does South Korea Really Want These American ‘Friends’?

South Korea long ago surpassed its northern antagonist economically and technologically.

Doug Bandow Contributing writer, policy analyst, one who tilts at windmills

South Korea long ago surpassed its northern antagonist economically and technologically. With a larger population and much larger network of international partners, the Republic of Korea could have defended itself from North Korea.

However, the ROK preferred to rely on Washington for its defense. Why spend

 the money if Uncle Sucker was willing to pay the bill? It seemed a good deal for

 Seoul, since the U.S. was ever ready to deploy ground forces, carrier groups, 

air wings, nuclear weapons, and whatever else might be needed.

But with potentially growing support in Washington for launching a preventative

 war against the North, South Koreans could be forgiven for wondering whose

 interests their supposed American friends have in mind. For instance, 

Sen. Lindsey Graham recently appeared on NBC to discuss the challenge

 posed by Pyongyang.

When asked if he favored a military strike against the Democratic People’s

 Republic of Korea, Lindsey said yes “If that’s what it would take.”

 Unfortunately, almost certainly North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would 

not supinely accept such an attack. He probably would suspect any military

 action as the beginning of an attempt at regime change—to which his

 best response would be to strike quickly and hard.

Sen. Graham acknowledged that the cost of conflict would be high: “

It would be bad for the Korean Peninsula. It would be bad for China. 

It would be bad for Japan, be bad for South Korea. It would be the end

 of North Korea.”

But no big deal for the U.S. After all, “It would be terrible but the war would

 be over [there], wouldn’t be here.” What the conflict “would not do is hit America.”

Alas, that would be small solace to South Koreans.

For the ROK, war would be catastrophic. Seoul is the political, industrial, and

 cultural heart of the country. The Seoul-Inchon metropolitan area includes 

roughly half of the country’s population. Unfortunately, the city lies barely 

30 miles from the DMZ and is within range of artillery and Scud missiles. 

The North possesses chemical and biological weapons, as well as a nascent

 nuclear capability.

Moreover, Pyongyang has abundant armor and infantry, as well as sizable

 special operations forces which might be able to infiltrate via tunnels under

 the DMZ. The South and U.S. would control the air, limiting the DPRK’s 

potential gains, but North Korea’s military wouldn’t have to get far to 

wreak havoc.

Casualty and cost estimates vary widely, but there easily could be tens 

of thousands of dead, hundreds of thousands of wounded, and millions

 of displaced South Koreans. The economic damage could be in the

 hundreds of billions. The North also would be devastated. China and 

Japan could suffer too, depending upon the weapons used and trajectory 

of combat.

All this, after the U.S. spent the last 64 years dedicated to preventing the 

Second Korean War. And all this to forestall a potential threat still well into

 the future, which could be deterred. Kim Jong-un is evil, not suicidal. He

 wants his virgins in this world, not the next. He doesn’t want to attack

 America. He wants to prevent Washington from attacking his nation.

Ominously, Sen. Graham said he had talked with President Trump, telling 

the latter “to stop” the North from developing an ICBM. The senator insisted 

that the president “is not going to allow this problem to get any worse than 

it is today.”

What does the president think? He warned that a “major, major conflict” 

is possible, one which would be fought on South Korea, not American,

 soil—and by the decision of the U.S., not ROK.

Worse, President Trump has treated Seoul with what appears to be studied

 contempt. For instance, in an interview with Reuters before the South’s recent 

election, he allowed that he’s thinking of tearing up the free trade agreement 

with the ROK since it is “a horrible deal.” (Apparently his definition of a bad 

commercial arrangement is one under which any American buys any imports

 from anyone.) Seoul was caught unawares, with the Trade Ministry “trying to understand what President Trump said exactly and the context of his remarks,” according to one befuddled official. Cancelling the FTA would disrupt

 commerce and be a particular boon to the Chinese, who currently trade 

more with the South than do the U.S. and Japan combined.

The president also announced that he believes the South should pay for

 the THAAD missile defense system. Never mind that many South Koreans,

 including the candidate elected South Korean president shortly thereafter,

 opposed the system. And the fact that Washington didn’t mention a price 

tag at the start.

Explained President Trump, he had “informed South Korea it would be

 appropriate if they paid. It’s a billion-dollar system.” And undoubtedly 

worth the money since it is—what else could it be?—“phenomenal.”

 National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster followed up with a phone call to 

South Korean officials, saying don’t worry, the president’s statement was, 

well, not quite a joke, but “in line with the U.S. public expectations on

 defense cost burden-sharing with allies,” according to the official statement 

of the South Korean government.

Still, President Trump is no fan of the alliance. During the campaign he argued

 that the U.S. wasn’t getting its money’s worth. Then Secretaries Tillerson 

and Mattis made nice with Seoul, appearing to restore the bilateral relationship. 

But after meeting with President Xi Jinping President Trump announced that

 the latter had explained China’s relationship with Korea, and that “Korea 

actually used to be a part of China.”

In fact, the Trump administration has consulted with Beijing and even worse, 

Tokyo, but not Seoul in developing its North Korea policy. Surprising an ally

 is bad enough when it means wrecking trade relationships and sending 

out bills for security services rendered. But President Trump is taking the 

same approach when issuing threats of war involving the South.

The benefits which Seoul receives from relying on the U.S. for its defense 

are obvious. But under President Donald Trump, the costs are becoming equally apparent. If the latter triggers a war fought “over there,” as Sen. Graham noted,

 Seoul will find the cost of the alliance to have been very great indeed.

South Koreans might come to wonder whether they can afford to have 

“friends” like the Americans.

This article was first posted to Forbes online.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/does-south-korea-really-want-these-american-friends_us_592d7216e4b0a7b7b469cd05