Government Predictions Could Land You on the No-Fly List

From the “how to restrict freedoms while not necessarily preventing much of anything” files: No-fly lists don’t actually rely on hard evidence of violent crimes, but rather on ‘predictive assessments,’ and the US Justice Department and FBI admitted as much in a court filing in May, Guardian journalist (and former WIRED Security writer) Spencer Ackerman reports. In fact, there’s no real evidence that the government’s guesswork (er, prediction model) about who might be a threat to aviation and national security has any scientific validity. There’s no research on how often it results in errors, either. One would hope that a history of violent crimes is what would lead to being on the blacklist, but previous reports indicate that things like social media postings, or even being Muslim and refusing to become an FBI informant, could be all it takes. And since the Obama administration is secretive about how predictions are made, people who wind up on the No Fly list for reasons unknown to them may have a hard time meaningfully challenging the government’s predictions of future misconduct. The ACLU first filed a legal challenge on behalf of people on the No Fly list back in June 2010, and argued against blacklisting based on “predictive assessment” in court on August 7th. The case is ongoing.

http://www.wired.com/2015/08/security-news-week-us-admits-uses-predictions-not-data-blacklist-flyers/