New Turkey-Saudi Strategy For Proxy War In Syria

By Countercurrents.org

To bring down Syrian president Bashar Assad, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have united with an aggressive new strategy for the on-going proxy war in Syria. The pact was sealed in early-March when Turkish president Erdogan flew to Riyadh to meet Saudi king Salman. The new virtual military alliance adds Saudi money to Turkey's logistical support. At the same time, Jordan is facing new complication with the proxy war.

The new Turkish-Saudi proxy war plan has led to a new joint command center in the northeastern Syrian province of Idlib. A coalition of groups including Nusra and other Islamist brigades such as Ahrar al-Sham that the U.S. views as extremist has become over-active. The alliance is calling itself "Conquest Army".

Citing Turkish officials an AP news report said:

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have forged a strategic alliance. The alliance has strengthened proxy fighters against Assad.

The two countries, according to the news report, consider the U.S. is in indecision on Assad, the two countries’ common enemy. For years, the two countries were at odds on the question of dealing with Assad, their common enemy. But their mutual frustration with what they consider American indecision has brought them into the strategic alliance.

The report said:

The reported Turkish-Saudi strategic alliance is a provoking concern in the U.S. as the U.S. does not want rebel groups including the al-Qaida linked Nusra Front uniting to topple Assad.

It said:

“The Obama administration worries that the revived rebel alliance could potentially put a more dangerous radical Islamist regime in Assad's place, just as the U.S. is focused on bringing down the Islamic State group.”

Citing a U.S. official the AP report said:

The U.S. is concerned that the new alliance is helping Nusra gain territory in Syria.

The Istanbul datelined report said:

“The coordination between Turkey and Saudi Arabia reflects renewed urgency and impatience with the Obama administration's policy in the region.”

Citing Turkish officials the report added:

Saudi Arabia previously distanced and kept away funding from some anti-Assad Islamist groups at Washington's urging.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey also differed about the role of the international Islamist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, in the Syrian opposition. Turkey supports the group while the Saudi monarchy considers it a threat to its rule at home; that has translated into differences on the ground — until recently.

Indicating further shifts in the broader scenario in the region the report said:

“Turkish officials say the Obama administration has disengaged from Syria as it focuses on rapprochement with Iran. While the U.S. administration is focused on degrading the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq, they say it has no coherent strategy for ending the rule of Assad, Iran's key ally in the region.

“The new Turkish and Saudi push suggests that they view Assad as a bigger threat to the region than groups like Nusra. Turkish officials discount the possibility that Nusra will ever be in a position to hold sway over much of Syria.”

It added:

“The Saudi shift appears to be part of broader proxy war against Iran that includes Saudi-led air strikes in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.”

According to the report, Turkey provides logistical and intelligence support to some members of the coalition. Turkey does not view Nusra as a security threat and therefore does not impede it. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have moved to bolster Ahrar al-Sham at Nusra's expense. This strays from the U.S. line that al-Sham is an extremist group, but Turkish officials say they distinguish between international jihadist groups and others with more localized aims. They place al-Sham in the latter category.

One Turkish official said that the CIA has even lately halted its support for anti-Assad groups in northern Iraq. U.S. trainers are now in Turkey on a train-and-equip program aimed at adding fighters to counter the Islamic State group and bolster moderate forces in Syria, but Turkish officials are skeptical that it will amount to much.

Usama Abu Zeid, a legal adviser to the Free Syrian Army, confirmed that the new coordination between Turkey and Saudi Arabia — as well as Qatar — had facilitated the rebel advance.

The AP report cited Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma:

"It's a different world now in Syria, because the Saudi pocketbook has opened and the Americans can't tell them not to do it. It's quite clear that Salman has prioritized efforts against Iran over those against the Muslim Brotherhood."

Landis said it is a dangerous game — especially for Turkey.

"The cautionary tale is that every power in the Middle East has tried to harness the power of Islamists to their own ends," he said, noting that Assad's government also backed Islamists in Iraq who later turned their guns on him. "It always seems to blow back."

Jordan’s complication

The rise of Islamist militias in the rebels' ranks has led Jordan to switch its focus to counter-terrorism. The U.S. ally is now ready to pull the plug on the rebels.'

A report by The Christian Science Monitor said:

Alarmed by the strength of Islamist militants in the rebels’ ranks and their recent seizure of a critical Jordanian border crossing, Jordanian officials say their priorities have changed from unseating president Assad to taking the fight to jihadists including the self-declared Islamic State. Now Jordan wants to train thousands of tribal fighters in eastern Syria, potentially opening up a new front against IS (Islamist State).

The Free Syrian Army, a group considered secular, is teaming up with Islamist militias deemed a threat to Jordan.

The CSM report cited Hassan Abu Haniya, a political analyst and expert on jihadist movements: “There is a fear and frustration in Jordan that rather than moderate forces, support for the rebels in the south has only strengthened extremist groups such as Al Qaeda.”

The “Syria crisis: Spooked by rebel gains, Jordan doubles down on Islamic State” headlined report said:

On April 4, a coalition of rebel forces captured the Nassib crossing between Jordan and Syria, the last lifeline between the two countries.

However, Jordanian officials were alarmed when it became clear that rather than the FSA, Jabhat al Nusra, Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, had taken over the border crossing. For the first time, Syria jihadists had reached Jordanian soil.

Nusra fighters in southern Syria number roughly 10,000, compared to some 60,000 FSA fighters. But while the FSA has larger numbers, it relies on Nusra’s superior weaponry during joint operations such as the capture of the border crossing from Syrian regime forces. Nusra fighters have also been on the front line in rebel offensives in Idlib.

The report by Taylor Luck said:

The US has also cooled on working with the FSA. In recent months, US military officials have distanced themselves from the FSA.

Citing Cmdr. Elissa Smith, a Pentagon spokesperson the report said:

The US goal is to train 5,400 “moderate” Syrian forces in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar.

Citing FSA commanders the report said:

Since the border seizure, travel between Jordan and Syria has become “difficult” and prominent FSA commanders have been prevented from returning to Jordan.

“The border remains closed and our forces are being left to fend for themselves,” says Assad al Zoubi, commander of the FSA’s southern forces.

According to Zoubi, the rebel forces receive “minimum” financial aid from Saudi Arabia, which along with Turkey and Qatar has been a reliable backer of anti-Assad fighters.

It’s unclear to what extent Jordan’s policy shift could blunt the FSA’s momentum in Syria. 

For the last three years it afforded the FSA nearly unfettered movement of arms and fighters while a large portion of the FSA command is based in Jordan, including Zoubi. Jordan played host to the training of FSA officers, reportedly by the CIA, and turned a blind eye to rebel recruitment in Syrian refugee camps.

The May 4, 2015 datelined report said:

Over the past year, Jordan has begun to put a much higher priority on containing jihadist movements in Syria than on defeating the Assad regime. Jordan’s official position is that it supports a “political solution to end the violence” in Syria.

Observers and officials say Washington’s focus on fighting Islamic State is one factor in the policy shift. Jordan is a major recipient of US military aid and a partner in the aerial bombing campaign against IS.

The other factor is growing unease among Jordanian officials that aid and arms to moderate Syrian groups are falling into the hands of jihadist forces.

It cited Jawad Anani, a Jordanian senator and former foreign minister: “Jordan’s new main priority and the US’s main priority is fighting terrorism, namely ISIS. Jordan no longer wants to be drawn into supporting any side in this [Syrian] conflict.”

Jordan’s tribal allies

The report said:

Now Jordan is turning to Syrian tribes and other social forces that have not been corrupted or tainted by ties with jihadist movements.

Jordan is reaching out to Syrian tribes and civilians. It’s offering support in their fight to regain towns and villages overrun by IS – a preemptive step to prevent jihadists from threatening Jordan’s borders.

“We are helping Syrian civilians and tribes in the Eastern region to take back their towns and villages that have been taken over by ISIS,” says Mohammed al-Momani, Jordanian government spokesman and minister of media affairs.

“This is a new, international effort to help the Syrian people and is part of the war on terror and terrorist organizations.”

US defense officials declined to comment on Jordan’s training program for tribals. Jordanian officials insist that their strategy already has buy-in from the US and other allies, who are keen to find potential partners in Syria willing to fight against Islamic State.

Jordanian officials hope tribal forces would be more reliable than the FSA and other forces that have come to rely on the better-armed jihadist militias. They argue that tribal structures are easier to manage from afar, and that tribal sheikhs have the authority to lead the fight and not succumb to the internecine politics that hobbled the FSA.

Islamic State has also made inroads into tribes in eastern Syria, both by coercion and by inspiration. In what may be a nascent US strategy, Jordanian officials reckon that playing to tribal affiliations in Syria could encourage defections and weaken IS’s hold over the population.

Jordanian officials refuse to go into detail on the scope and timing of the training, citing security concerns.

However, Syrian tribal sources claim they have been approached by Jordanian security services to provide “thousands” of potential fighters to take part in the training. As many as 5,000 tribal fighters and civilians could be involved, and tribal leaders have been offered the backing of coalition air power.

Talks have not, however, broached the issue of weapons supplies.

“We have 50,000 tribal fighters ready and willing to secure the borders in Iraq and fight extremist groups,” says Mohammed Azzab Al Darwoush, member of the Syrian Tribal Council and patriarch of the largest tribe in Homs.

“But we need weapons to break free from the Islamic State’s hold,” says Mr. Darwoush, one of several Syrian tribal leaders reportedly approached by Jordanian authorities.

Saudi Arabia has long used Jordan as a rear base for anti-Assad rebels.

http://www.countercurrents.org/cc080515.htm