Heat is on Abbott government over climate change as world turns

Peter Hannam

Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald

When the Baird government unveiled the first high-resolution mapping of how global warming is expected to shift the climate for NSW, Victoria and the ACT by 2070, officials were quizzed why they weren't using "climate variability", a term favoured by federal Coalition counterparts, to describe the outlook.

"This is the NSW government, we believe in climate change!" came the immediate response at the last month's media briefing.

In the next few weeks, 2014 will likely be declared the hottest year on record globally, beating 2005 and 2010.  

So, it seems, does Victoria's new Labor premier Daniel Andrews. His minister for climate change – Lisa Neville – is expected to take a higher profile on the issue than her Liberal predecessor Ryan Smith. NewEnergy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio has also signalled a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy - both areas largely stalled under the previous government.

Gone, too, is the Coalition preference of eschewing "climate change" in Victorian agencies, such as in 2011 when agriculture minister and now state Nationals leader, Peter Walsh, launched a Climate Challenges Centre at Melbourne University. The jointly funded research interests include how crops might adapt to rising carbon-dioxide levels in an "evolving climate".

Minister Barnaby Joyce in October outlined his department's paper on competitiveness in the sector without a single reference to climate change in its 111-page report. "Australian farmers, even more so than their global competitors, must adapt to climate variability," was about the closest it got.

Such an aversion to the topic – and for some Coalition MPs, outright dismissal global warming is at all a threat – may leave the Abbott government even more out of step with the electorate and the governments of its two most populous states.

Not cool: Records were broken in 2014 - the world's warmest year on record and Australia's third-warmest. Photo: Steven Siewert

If climate change was a liability for Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2014 – witness how it dogged his visit to the United States and then dominated G20 coverage after President Barack Obama's "Save the Reef" speech – there are many reasons to think it will be an even bigger issue in 2015.

By the end of this year, almost 200 nations will gather in Paris to negotiate a global treaty aimed at keeping temperature increases to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial times (versus about a 1-degree increase so far). Each meeting in the run-up will scrutinise pledges, including Australia's, for cutting greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020.

Pope Francis will weigh in too, issuing the first-ever Vatican teachings to the world's 1.2 billion Catholics to act on climate change. He is also expected to bring together other religious leaders for a summit ahead of the Paris gathering. 

At home, the government's centrepiece $2.55 billion pay-the-polluter Direct Action plan will finally be tested – just as power sector emissions start to climb in the wake of the carbon tax it replaced. Any rollback of the Renewable Energy Target – so far blocked in the Senate – will only add to the scheme's task.

Reminders Australia is vulnerable to climate change will also come in updates from the NSW government of its assessment of risks for south-eastern Australia to 2070, including for water availability and sea-level rise, and more data on Victoria. The release of CSIRO's Natural Resource Management report on climate risk – which the Abbott government is understood to be delaying – will add to concerns.  

Polls suggest voter sentiment is starting to shift, such as the Lowy Institute's annual survey released mid-2014, which showed the first increase of climate concern in six years. Almost two-thirds of respondents said the federal government should be taking a leadership role in cutting emissions, with just 7 per cent saying it should do nothing.

Amanda McKenzie, chief executive of the Climate Council – which was scrapped by the Abbott government as its first act on taking office in September 2013 – said the mood will continue to move as people understand the link between extreme weather and climate, with recent heat a clear signal. "We've had two very extreme summers and this looks like it could be another."

In the next few weeks, 2014 will likely be declared the hottest year on record globally, beating 2005 and 2010. For Australia, it was the third-warmest behind 2013 and 2005, with only 2011 a below-average year this century.

El Ninos tend to result in relatively hot and dry years for most of Australia, and the current near-threshold conditions in the Pacific point to a tough couple of months ahead. This weekend's heatwave across south-eastern states will also likely elevate anxiety about bushfires.

Farmers concerned

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http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/heat-is-on-abbott-government-over-climate-change-as-world-turns-20150102-12ghrj.html