China-Russia Axis: Will 'Putin model' lure Chinese president?

John Garnaut

ASIA PACIFIC EDITOR FOR FAIRFAX MEDIA

Australia will be expected to draw clear red lines and "push back" against China if President Xi Jinping creates an anti-Western axis with Vladimir Putin, says a former US national security adviser.

Stephen Hadley, national security adviser to president George Bush from 2005 to 2009, told Fairfax it was too early to say whether Mr Xi would continue his country's long journey of co-operatively engaging with the international rules-based order, which he said had facilitated China's rise.

But he said there were worrying signs that Mr Xi could be lured by a "Putin Model" of dictatorship which would jeopardise the prosperity and stability China has achieved and force countries like Australia to make stark choices. 

"I hope Xi Jinping is not attracted to the 'Putin Model': pushing back on the US, being tough on neighbours and cracking down at home," said Mr Hadley, in an interview.

"That will put more of a premium on solidarity and red lines and being clear on what is not acceptable, without closing the door on co-operation," he said.

"That isn't a threat, this isn't about formal sanctions, it is about the natural reaction of markets and of neighbours to push back when they feel at risk. Xi will risk creating the very containment strategy he accuses the US of following."

Mr Hadley said Australia has a quiet but important role to play in persuading China to stick to its old peaceful course by acting as an "interpreter" between China the US and also between China and its near neighbours, Japan and Korea.

He envisaged Australia working to hold China to its path of engagement through "multiple overlapping geometries" of regional co-operation, with some forums that include China and other more sensitive forums that do not.

For Australia to perform that role would require it taking a tough stand against its dominant trading partner when it breached international standards of behaviour. It would also require deep "solidarity" with other US allies, he said. 

"I think if Australia's going to play this role, talking to China about international principles and trying to call forth the better angels of Chinese nature, then it is also going to have to be willing to be clear with China that it cannot use force and coercion to resolve its disputes with its neighbours," said Mr Hadley.

"It needs to be part of that push-back."

To date, the Abbott Government has taken a strong public line against Chinese coercion in territorial disputes, joining the US and Japan and finding support from Vietnam, Philippines, India and others. 

It currently faces the predicament of whether to sign up to a China-dominated regional infrastructure investment bank, which some Australian officials believe would undermine international norms and US and Japanese leadership of competing institutions.  

Mr Hadley is in Australia this week and next as the Lowy Institute's Telstra Fellow, outlining his views on America's place in a challenging world order

.

He will speak in Melbourne on Thursday and Canberra and Sydney next week.

"I worry that President Putin in his private conversations with President Xi Jinping is making something like the following argument:  that the West does not accept the legitimacy of either the Russian or the Chinese regimes; that the West (led by the United States) is seeking to destabilise and change both governments; that it is this effort that is responsible for the instability and demonstrations in both Ukraine and Hong Kong; that the agents of this Western effort are civil society groups, NGO's, free media, and dissidents; and that these "agents of foreign influence" must be stamped out in both Russia and China," says Mr Hadley, in a draft of his lecture to be delivered in Sydney on November 5.

"Support for the conclusion that this is not a fanciful concern can be found in the fact that Chinese authorities seem to be adopting some of the same tactics that President Putin is using against NGO's, the media, and dissidents.  And we are seeing increasingly aggressive actions being taken by both countries against Western countries."

Mr Hadley said he had conveyed the same message to Chinese officials in Beijing.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/chinarussia-axis-will-putin-model-lure-chinese-president-20141029-11dsgm.html#ixzz3HZMdmQNC