Hawks squawk even before Iran nuclear deal is sealed Opposition from Israel and others should be

Hawks squawk even before Iran nuclear deal is sealed

Opposition from Israel and others should be tempered by the fact agreement looks likely to be phased, limited and reversible

Ian Black, Middle East editor

Hardliners in Tehran, hawks in Tel Aviv and Washington, nervous Saudis and their Gulf allies are all alarmed at the prospect of a nuclear deal between Iran, the US and the international community.

Initial reactions from conservative opponents of President Hassan Rouhani have been predictably critical - with warnings that all sanctions had to be lifted and Iran's right to uranium enrichment recognised before confidence-building measures could proceed.

So were the openly angry words from the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, still hinting at a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The agreement reached in Switzerland was, he warned, "the deal of the century" for the Islamic Republic. But Israel – with its own undeclared atomic arsenal – would not be bound by it.

In the US, suspicions look likely to harden on Capitol Hill as the crucial details of the Geneva agreement, and especially any relief from sanctions, become clear. The White House has already had to urge Congress not to tie its hands in the talks with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, which has dramatically demonstrated its chagrin at Barack Obama's policies towards both Iran and Syria, kept silent on Friday. But no one has forgotten – thanks to WikiLeaks – King Abdullah's famous call to "cut off the head of the snake" in Tehran. Warnings this week that the kingdom may acquire its own nuclear weapons from Pakistan were a reminder – perhaps a deliberate one – of the high stakes being played for in the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates is also likely to be deeply unhappy about the beginning of a rapprochement between its powerful regional rival and traditional protector.

The US secretary of state, John Kerry, who was putting the finishing touches to the P5 + 1 agreement in Geneva, has already had to reassure the Gulf states, as well as Jordan and Egypt, that America will not allow them to be targeted by Iran. Bahrain, with its restive and repressed Shia majority, worries in particular about this. Tehran, warned one influential Gulf commentator, could interpret a nuclear agreement as "American acquiescence in Iranian meddling in their allies affairs".

Opposition everywhere should, however, be tempered by the fact that the emerging deal looks likely to be phased, limited and reversible, offering partial relief from crippling sanctions in return for verifiable progress on international monitoring of Iran's nuclear programme.

In the Islamic Republic, the key to momentum will be sufficiently tangible economic improvements to build up the popular support Rouhani needs to bolster his position vis-a-vis diehard conservatives and the Revolutionary Guards, imbued with decades of suspicion towards the US, the west and their Arab allies. The continuing confrontation over the war in Syria, where Tehran and Lebanon's Hezbollah back Bashar al-Assad to the hilt while the Saudis support the Sunni rebels, has been a vivid reminder of Iran's regional reach and influence. For the moment though, Rouhani appears to enjoy the backing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has urged critics "not to consider our negotiators as compromisers".

Israel's ill-tempered opposition – even before anything has been formally agreed – looks set to further strain its already tense relations with Washignton. "Netanyahu unwise to challenge US so openly/dismissively on possible Iran nuclear deal," tweeted Nicholas Burns, a former senior US diplomat. "Netanyahu's outburst was a serious tactical error." The Israeli prime minister has taken a hard line on this issue for years, so it is no surprise he is taking the news badly. It is still hard to imagine, however, that Israel would attack Iran – even if it has the military capability to do so alone – while a prolonged and internationally backed agreement is in place.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/08/hawks-iran-nuclear-deal-us-israel-middle-east