SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: “They want a defeat of the Americans where the Americans cannot attack them any longer.”

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2096810157606875483

🇺🇸 Iran may no longer be trying to deter America

Matthew Hoh thinks Washington may be misreading what Iran actually wants from this war.

The former U.S. Marine and State Department official argues Tehran is moving beyond the old cycle of retaliation, deterrence and negotiated pauses.

Iranian leaders are increasingly talking about going on the offensive, while Iranian forces have now demonstrated weapons specifically intended to threaten U.S. naval forces.

For Hoh, that points toward a much larger objective.

“They have no interest in establishing some type of just deterrent against the Americans.”

“They want a defeat of the Americans where the Americans cannot attack them any longer.”

That changes the calculation around U.S. carriers, bases and the Strait of Hormuz.

Hoh argues Iran understands American forces are unlikely to voluntarily leave the region simply because another ceasefire is signed.

“They understand... that the Americans are not going to leave unless you make them leave.”

And, in his darkest assessment, that could eventually mean Iran deciding it has to seriously damage or even sink a U.S. carrier.

Washington may still be thinking about how to restore deterrence.

Hoh thinks Tehran may be thinking about how to end the cycle altogether.

@MatthewPHoh