https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2040822895501283435
U.S. rescue teams were ambushed, suffering losses worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but according to the U.S., they managed to accomplish the mission.
According to official information, the second American pilot managed to hide for more than 24 hours and was rescued in an operation where, as I have reported in recent days, Iran lets them in, but getting out is the real problem.
It appears that American forces tried to use an old agricultural airstrip in the region, but Iran had already prepared a large-scale ambush.
At least two variants of the C-130, possibly MC-130J, were lost, along with one or more AH-6/MH-6 Little Bird helicopters. There are also reports of two Black Hawks being hit, but which managed to leave the area safely.
Contrary to the official version that the units were destroyed on the ground, the images clearly show damage caused by air defenses on the aircraft wreckage, and this may cast doubt on any other official version of the event, including potentially much larger losses.
The two MC-130J Commando II each cost between US$ 114-165 million, but with special SOF configurations they easily reach US$ 130-165 million per unit, which puts the damage between US$ 260-330 million.
The MH-6 Little Bird costs about US$ 2-4 million in the basic version and US$ 7.5 million in the more equipped variants like the ones used in missions such as this one in Iran.
This is the minimum estimate of the damages, but the losses may be higher when all the assets are accounted for.
In the last 72 hours, the damage tally also includes 1 F-15, 1 A-10, 2 MQ-9 drones also shot down, and damage to anther A-10, two Black Hawks, plus one CH-47F destroyed on the ground in Kuwait, bringing the total damage close to half a billion dollars in just the last 3 days.
If the information on casualties released so far is correct, despite the losses, the rescue operation was a success when viewed in isolation.
However, it calls into question everything that has been said by the U.S. so far about Iranian air defenses and reinforces what we have been saying about the gradual deployment of these systems, which, according to my own estimates, Iran still has hundreds of.
In addition, this latest event shows what I had already said: Iran is a master of ambushes, with a highly consolidated asymmetric doctrine developed across multiple conflicts that include wars in Yemen, Syria, and through various proxies.
Iranian ambush capability comes out strengthened, and if the pilot rescue really occurred, the American special forces come out of this operation looking very good.
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