The IDF has informed the Israeli cabinet that the air war has reached the limits of its effectiveness in its current form of focusing on military targets. Ron Ben Yishai, Israel's premier military analyst says Israel is considering two paths:
1) Gradual infrastructure degradation. The progressive destruction of bridges, power stations, and transport links to make the regime unable to provide basic services. The downside: it takes time, allows adaptation, and lets Iran continue disrupting oil markets and striking Israel meanwhile.
2) The "Dahiya Doctrine": Ben-Yishai's preferred recommendation. This involves pre-warning civilians to evacuate specific neighborhoods in Tehran, particularly those housing families of senior regime officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders, then completely flattening those areas from the air. He argues making senior IRGC commanders personally homeless and displaced would, in his view, make them far less willing to reject Trump's ceasefire offers.
Neither of these options will work. But they are both based on the intentional and massive commitment of war crimes.
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